Mirassol vs São Paulo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mirassol to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
The coach reads a leaky home defence against a side that barely scores away; the dressing room stresses only a two-point gap and São Paulo's five away games without a win; the sceptic sees the 30% away price as harsh for a team with a better goal record. The published 41/29/30 split and 46% over line look about right.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Mirassol are underrated; The Sceptic thinks São Paulo are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersA leaky home defence meets an attack that travels poorly — goals lean home-sided.
Mirassol concede 1.42 per game with only 10% clean sheets and both teams score in 65% of their matches. São Paulo score just 0.73 away per game and failed to win any of their last five on the road, netting once in five.
Mirassol: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA two-point gap keeps this a tense, must-win fixture for the hosts.
Fourteenth with 36 points from 31 games, Mirassol sit just two points behind ninth-placed São Paulo's 42, so both have something at stake. Mirassol have lost two of their last six; São Paulo have won three of their last six despite that away slump.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSão Paulo at 30% looks slightly too low for this away record and record.
The numbers say home 41%, draw 29%, away 30%, yet São Paulo concede 1.13 a game with 23% clean sheets, both better than Mirassol. H2H is close: 3 wins to 2 with 2.7 goals a game.
São Paulo: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Mirassol are slight favourites at 41%, with São Paulo on 30% and the draw on 29%. Mirassol are 14th and São Paulo 9th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Mirassol won two and São Paulo three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mirassol win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- São Paulo win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Mirassol and 1.1 from São Paulo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 29% | 30% | Stats preview | #796 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mirassol: last 6
WLDWDW · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Internacional | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | at RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Botafogo | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Vitoria | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Coritiba | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWDDL
São Paulo: last 6
WWLLWD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Cruzeiro | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLLLD
Season stats
| Mirassol | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.16 | Goals scored per game | 1.16 |
| 1.42 | Goals conceded per game | 1.13 |
| 1.44 | Scored per game at home | 1.56 |
| 0.87 | Scored per game away | 0.73 |
| 48% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| 65% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 23% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | São Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Mirassol won 3, São Paulo 2, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | São Paulo | 1–0 | Mirassol | Serie A |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Mirassol | 3–0 | São Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Mirassol | 3–0 | São Paulo | Serie A |
| 24 May 2025 | São Paulo | 0–2 | Mirassol | Serie A |
| 5 Feb 2025 | São Paulo | 4–1 | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Mirassol | 1–1 | São Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.Andre LuisSuspended
- OutNeguebaKnee
- DoubtJose AldoMuscle
- OutN. BosshardtNot available
- OutButaKnee
- OutCaulyNot available
Show 2 more
- OutD. DuarteKnee
- DoubtFerreiraInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Mirassol 7São Paulo 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mirassol 2 · São Paulo 2
- Referee
- Lucas Casagrande
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
