Vitória vs Athletico-PR prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Vitória 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published 37/28/34: the coach sees goals on both sides' scoring rates, the dressing room leans slightly to third-placed Athletico-PR on points and rest, and the sceptic finds the prices consistent with a volatile head-to-head. The over 2.5 line at 50% is likewise broadly endorsed, with only mild nudges either way.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Athletico-PR's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely enough to make goals the likelier story.
Athletico-PR average 1.47 goals per away game and both teams scored in 58% of their matches, while Vitória average 1.47 at home. Vitória's 42% both-teams-score rate is the drag, but Athletico-PR keep clean sheets in only 26% of games, so a shared-goals match reads well.
Athletico-PR: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird-placed Athletico-PR have more to play for and the fresher legs.
Athletico-PR sit 3rd on 53 points from 31 games; Vitória are 13th on 37. The visitors also had 6 days' rest to Vitória's 4. Vitória's last six show two wins, two draws and two defeats, so the table and run both favour the away side.
Athletico-PR: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's near-even split looks fair given the H2H split.
Published 37/28/34 sits comfortably between season form and that volatility; over 2.5 at 50% also matches 49% on 3+ goals.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vitória are slight favourites at 37%, with Athletico-PR on 34% and the draw on 29%. Vitória are 13th and Athletico-PR 4th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Vitória won one and Athletico-PR two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vitória win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Athletico-PR win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Vitória and 1.3 from Athletico-PR. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 28% | 34% | Stats preview | #798 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vitória: last 6
DLWLDW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Chapecoense-sc | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Cruzeiro | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Gremio | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWLW
Athletico-PR: last 6
LWDWDL · 12 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Palmeiras | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Chapecoense-sc | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Bahia | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Cruzeiro | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLWW
Season stats
| Vitória | Athletico-PR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 1.58 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.19 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game at home | 1.69 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.47 |
| 42% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| 42% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 35% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 23% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitória | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Vitória won 2, Athletico-PR 4, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | Vitória | 4–0 | Athletico-PR | Copa Do Brasil |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Athletico-PR | 2–0 | Vitória | Copa Do Brasil |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Athletico-PR | 3–1 | Vitória | Serie A |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Athletico-PR | 1–2 | Vitória | Serie A |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Vitória | 0–1 | Athletico-PR | Serie A |
| 17 Nov 2018 | Vitória | 1–2 | Athletico-PR | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.ReneSuspended
- OutBaralhasBroken Leg
- OutCamutangaBroken Leg
Show 6 more
- OutDuduBack
- OutEduAchilles Tendon
- OutFabianoKnee
- OutNathan MendesKnee
- OutRamonLeg
- OutRiccieliCalf
- OutG. BenavidezMuscle
- OutK. A. Calderon VargasNot available
- OutDantasNot available
Show 2 more
- OutC. TeranNot available
- DoubtClaudinhoInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Vitória 4Athletico-PR 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vitória 2 · Athletico-PR 2
- Referee
- Andre Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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