Santos vs Bahia prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Santos to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published numbers: a Santos edge built on home form and Bahia's away wobble, with a genuine draw chance given four stalemates in the last six meetings. On goals, the coach sees an open game and the sceptic notes Bahia's lower over rate, so the over sits around the published 55% rather than above it.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides leak goals, so an open game looks likely
Santos concede 1.48 per game with clean sheets in just 19% of matches, while Bahia keep only 29% and both teams score in 74% of Santos games. Santos average 1.47 at home and Bahia 1.40 away, pointing to chances at both ends.
Santos: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table stakes and equal rest point to a tight contest
Bahia sit 7th on 49 points, Santos 8th on 45, so the hosts can close to within a point. Santos are unbeaten in their last 5 at home (D W W D W), while Bahia have lost 3 of their last 6.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks fair but the goals line may be a touch high
Bahia's matches go over 2.5 only 52% of the time, which tempers the 55% over price.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Santos are favourites at 53%, with Bahia on 24% and the draw on 23%. Santos are 8th and Bahia 7th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Santos won three and Bahia two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Santos win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Bahia win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Santos and 1.3 from Bahia. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Santos: last 6
WLDWWL · 11 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Flamengo | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Atletico-MG CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWWDW
Bahia: last 6
LWLLWW · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Flamengo | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Mirassol | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Atletico Paranaense | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at RB Bragantino | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWWD
Season stats
| Santos | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.42 |
| 1.48 | Goals conceded per game | 1.26 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game at home | 1.44 |
| 1.62 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 68% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| 74% | Both teams scored | 61% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 16% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Santos won 1, Bahia 1, 4 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Bahia | 2–2 | Santos | Serie A |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Bahia | 2–0 | Santos | Serie A |
| 6 Apr 2025 | Santos | 2–2 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 18 Sep 2023 | Bahia | 1–2 | Santos | Serie A |
| 31 May 2023 | Bahia | 1–1 | Santos | Copa Do Brasil |
| 17 May 2023 | Santos | 0–0 | Bahia | Copa Do Brasil |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutArthur MeloMuscle
- OutG. EscobarNot available
- OutGabriel BrazaoShoulder
Show 3 more
- OutLucas VerissimoInjury
- OutVinicius LiraKnee
- OutWillian AraoNot available
- Susp.R. GomezSuspended
- Susp.Jean LucasSuspended
- OutLeo VieiraKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Santos 6Bahia 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Santos 2 · Bahia 2
- Referee
- Savio Pereira Sampaio
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
