Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Palmeiras to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Bragantino's poor away run and the hosts' strong home record anchor the home lean, while Palmeiras' two-day turnaround is the main caveat.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Palmeiras's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPalmeiras' home defence should keep Bragantino quiet again
Palmeiras concede just 0.71 per game with 45% clean sheets, while Bragantino manage only 0.94 away. Expect a controlled, low-concession home display.
Palmeiras: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePalmeiras' points push outweighs their heavy fixture load
Palmeiras sit 2nd on 66 points from 31 games and have won four of their last five in this competition, but they play on two days' rest with four games in 14 days. Bragantino, 10th on 41, arrive with five days' rest yet one win in six. The table gap and home run favour the hosts despite fatigue.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks right, but the goals line may be a touch high
I'd shade the total down slightly.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Palmeiras are clear favourites at 64%, with Red Bull Bragantino on 15% and the draw on 21%. Palmeiras are 2nd and Red Bull Bragantino 10th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Palmeiras won four and Red Bull Bragantino one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Palmeiras win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Red Bull Bragantino win or draw
- 36%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Palmeiras and 0.9 from Red Bull Bragantino. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 21% | 15% | Stats preview | #805 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Palmeiras: last 6
LWWWWD · 9 scored, 3 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Fluminense CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Atletico Paranaense | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Fluminense CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Corinthians | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bahia | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Gremio | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
Red Bull Bragantino: last 6
DWDLLD · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Mirassol | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Flamengo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Botafogo | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLLDL
Season stats
| Palmeiras | Red Bull Bragantino | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74 | Goals scored per game | 1.26 |
| 0.71 | Goals conceded per game | 1.16 |
| 1.87 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 1.62 | Scored per game away | 0.94 |
| 48% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 23% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| … | |||||
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Red Bull Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras won 4, Red Bull Bragantino 0, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Red Bull Bragantino | 0–1 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Palmeiras | 5–1 | Red Bull Bragantino | Serie A |
| 18 May 2025 | Red Bull Bragantino | 1–2 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Palmeiras | 0–0 | Red Bull Bragantino | Paulista - A1 |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Red Bull Bragantino | 0–0 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 21 Jun 2024 | Palmeiras | 2–1 | Red Bull Bragantino | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.Andreas PereiraSuspended
- Susp.J. PiquerezSuspended
- OutJefteKnee
Show 2 more
- OutPaulinhoNot available
- OutVitor RoqueNot available
- Susp.Eric RamiresSuspended
- OutCleitonNot available
- OutDavi GomesKnee
Show 5 more
- OutGustavo MarquesNot available
- OutGustavo NevesNot available
- OutA. HurtadoNot available
- DoubtH. MosqueraNot available
- DoubtRodriguinhoNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Palmeiras 2Red Bull Bragantino 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Palmeiras 4 · Red Bull Bragantino 2
- Referee
- Braulio da Silva Machado
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
