Internacional vs Botafogo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Internacional to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The coach reads an open, end-to-end game with goals likely both ways, matching the 54% over line; the dressing-room lens adds urgency to a home side low on points with suspensions to absorb; the sceptic notes the market still favours a 17th-placed side whose away visitors' worst run is on the road. Overall: mild home lean, goals expected.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Botafogo are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSloppy defences and decent attacks point to an open game
Internacional concede 1.29 a game with clean sheets in just 19% of matches, and Botafogo concede 1.55 with 16%, yet both score regularly enough - both-teams-scored lands in 58% and 68% of their games.
Botafogo: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but pressure weighs heavier on the hosts
Both had two games in 14 days, so rest is even at 7 versus 6 days. Four home suspensions force changes for a side already taking just 32 points.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks generous for the league's worst away traveller
The 49% home line leans on Internacional's home draws (3 of 5), while a 2-2 draw in 2026 keeps the draw at a fair 25%. Tilt 2.5 goals up slightly given Botafogo's 61% over rate.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Internacional are favourites at 49%, with Botafogo on 26% and the draw on 25%. Internacional are 17th and Botafogo 11th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Internacional won two and Botafogo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Internacional win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Botafogo win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Internacional and 1.2 from Botafogo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% | 25% | 26% | Stats preview | #797 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Internacional: last 6
LDWLWL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Mirassol | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Gremio | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Chapecoense-sc | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Santos | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLDDD
Botafogo: last 6
WDLLWD · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Chapecoense-sc | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Coritiba | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Mirassol | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Gremio | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| Internacional | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | Goals scored per game | 1.42 |
| 1.29 | Goals conceded per game | 1.55 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.62 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 39% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 68% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 16% |
| 32% | Failed to score | 23% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Internacional won 2, Botafogo 3, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Botafogo | 2–2 | Internacional | Serie A |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Internacional | 2–0 | Botafogo | Serie A |
| 11 May 2025 | Botafogo | 4–0 | Internacional | Serie A |
| 5 Dec 2024 | Internacional | 0–1 | Botafogo | Serie A |
| 20 Jul 2024 | Botafogo | 1–0 | Internacional | Serie A |
| 7 Dec 2023 | Internacional | 3–1 | Botafogo | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.Matheus CunhaSuspended
- Susp.G. MercadoSuspended
- Susp.R. VillagraSuspended
Show 7 more
- Susp.VitinhoSuspended
- OutAnthoniKnee
- OutKaykyAnkle
- OutG. MaripanMuscle
- OutS. RochetLower Back
- DoubtAllexNot available
- DoubtA. SanabriaNot available
- OutJ. BarreraAnkle
- OutKaio PantaleaoKnee
- DoubtArthur ChavesNot available
Show 1 more
- DoubtL. MonzonNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Internacional 7Botafogo 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Internacional 2 · Botafogo 2
- Referee
- Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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