Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Flamengo to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The Coach sees goals, the Sceptic leans just under the 2.5 line given Flamengo's recent low-scoring run, so the over sits near 50-56%. A competitive derby where the leaders' congestion is the main doubt.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFlamengo's away scoring rate should test a leaky Vasco defence in a rainy Rio night game.
Flamengo score 2.00 per game away and concede just 0.84, with 44% clean sheets; Vasco concede 1.45 per game and keep clean sheets only 13% of the time. Vasco fail to score in 32% of matches, so their 1.2 expected goals looks generous.
Vasco DA Gama: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA rested Vasco host a stretched league leader with everything to lose.
Flamengo lead with 70 points from 32 games but have played 4 games in 14 days and only 3 days rest, versus Vasco's 5. Vasco, 13th on 38 points, are W3 of their last 4 home games with 11 scored there.
Flamengo: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 50% away price looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high.
With 3+ goals priced at 55% and the season scoring environment at 2.66, I lean slightly under.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Flamengo are favourites at 50%, with Vasco DA Gama on 26% and the draw on 24%. Vasco DA Gama are 13th and Flamengo 1st in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Vasco DA Gama won three and Flamengo four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vasco DA Gama win or draw
- 50%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Flamengo win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Vasco DA Gama and 1.7 from Flamengo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 24% | 50% | Stats preview | #1720 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vasco DA Gama: last 6
WLLWDW · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Corinthians | 3–2 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Remo | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Botafogo | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLDWW
Flamengo: last 6
WDWDWD · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Atletico-MG | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Oct | vs Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Bahia | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Fluminense | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Santos | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: WDDWW
Season stats
| Vasco DA Gama | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 0.84 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 61% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 44% |
| 32% | Failed to score | 6% |
League matches only, 31 and 32 games.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| … | |||||
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
Match context
- Travel for Flamengo
- 0 km
- Rest days
- Vasco DA Gama 5Flamengo 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vasco DA Gama 3 · Flamengo 4
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 14 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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