Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Red Bull Bragantino to win: 77%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The combined analysis points strongly towards a home victory for Red Bull Bragantino, driven by their high scoring rate at home and Chapecoense's poor defensive record away from their base. While the market gives Chapecoense a small chance, the overall data suggests a high-scoring match where Bragantino's attacking power is likely to prevail.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersRed Bull Bragantino's strong home scoring ability meets Chapecoense's defensive vulnerabilities.
RB Bragantino scores 1.60 per game at home, contrasting with Chapecoense conceding 2.03 per game overall. Bragantino's recent form shows a mixed bag of results in their last 6 fixtures.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBragantino's position in the table provides a clear motivation for this crucial fixture.
Red Bull Bragantino sits 10th with 41 points from 32 games, while Chapecoense is 20th with 21 points from 31 games. Both sides have had 4 days of rest since their last match.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be slightly underestimating the defensive fragility of Chapecoense on the road.
Chapecoense has conceded 10 goals in their last 5 away games. Head-to-head encounters over the last 5 matches have averaged 2.4 goals per game.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
Red Bull Bragantino are clear favourites at 77%, with Chapecoense on 9% and the draw on 14%. Red Bull Bragantino are 10th and Chapecoense 20th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Red Bull Bragantino won one and Chapecoense one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Red Bull Bragantino win or draw
- 91%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 86%
- Chapecoense win or draw
- 23%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Red Bull Bragantino and 0.8 from Chapecoense. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 77% | 14% | 9% | Stats preview | #1709 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Red Bull Bragantino: last 6
LDWDLL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Palmeiras | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Mirassol | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Flamengo | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDLWL
Chapecoense: last 6
WLLLDL · 5 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Botafogo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Atletico Paranaense | 1–4 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Vitoria | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Atletico-MG | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Internacional | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLDWL
Season stats
| Red Bull Bragantino | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 1.03 |
| 1.19 | Goals conceded per game | 2.03 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 0.88 | Scored per game away | 0.69 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| 53% | Both teams scored | 65% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 6% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 32% |
League matches only, 32 and 31 games.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Red Bull Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Red Bull Bragantino won 3, Chapecoense 1, 1 draw; 2.4 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Chapecoense | 1–2 | Red Bull Bragantino | Serie A |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Red Bull Bragantino | 1–2 | Chapecoense | Serie A |
| 30 May 2021 | Chapecoense | 0–3 | Red Bull Bragantino | Serie A |
| 16 Nov 2013 | Chapecoense | 1–1 | Red Bull Bragantino | Serie B |
| 24 Aug 2013 | Red Bull Bragantino | 1–0 | Chapecoense | Serie B |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.GabrielSuspended
- Susp.Tiago VolpiSuspended
- OutDavi GomesKnee
Show 5 more
- OutGustavo MarquesNot available
- OutGustavo NevesNot available
- OutA. HurtadoNot available
- DoubtH. MosqueraNot available
- DoubtRodriguinhoNot available
- Susp.Camilo ReijersSuspended
- Susp.Yago FelipeSuspended
- OutHeitorHamstring
Show 3 more
- OutRobert ConceicaoKnee
- OutVinicius BalieiroKnee
- DoubtRafael CarvalheiraKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Red Bull Bragantino 4Chapecoense 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Red Bull Bragantino 2 · Chapecoense 2
- Referee
- Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
