Santos vs Palmeiras prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Palmeiras to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean Palmeiras, whose 2nd-place record and 0.69 goals conceded per game justify the 42% away edge, though Santos' home resilience keeps the draw live.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPalmeiras' defensive record meets Santos' leaky back line in a game with goals in it
Santos concede 1.47 per game with clean sheets in just 19% of matches, while Palmeiras concede only 0.69 and keep 47% clean sheets. Palmeiras' away scoring of 1.62 per game matches Santos' away rate, suggesting chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePalmeiras' title push meets a Santos side chasing a strong finish
Palmeiras sit 2nd on 69 points from 32 games with only 3 defeats, while Santos are 8th on 46. Santos have just 3 days' rest and six players out, including Neymar suspended. Palmeiras have 4 days but played 4 games in 14 days, and are also missing four players.
Palmeiras: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head scarcity makes the 2.5 line look slightly generous
Palmeiras' own matches go over only 47% of the time.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Palmeiras are slight favourites at 41%, with Santos on 31% and the draw on 28%. Santos are 8th and Palmeiras 2nd in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Santos won two and Palmeiras four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Santos win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Palmeiras win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Santos and 1.4 from Palmeiras. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 28% | 42% | Stats preview | #1706 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Santos: last 6
DWLDWW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Flamengo | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Remo | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWWD
Palmeiras: last 6
WLWWWW · 11 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs RB Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Fluminense CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Atletico Paranaense | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Fluminense CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Corinthians | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bahia | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWDLD
Season stats
| Santos | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 1.47 | Goals conceded per game | 0.69 |
| 1.44 | Scored per game at home | 1.88 |
| 1.62 | Scored per game away | 1.62 |
| 66% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 53% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 47% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 32 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Santos won 1, Palmeiras 3, 2 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | Santos | 0–0 | Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Palmeiras | 3–0 | Santos | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2 May 2026 | Palmeiras | 1–1 | Santos | Serie A |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Palmeiras | 1–0 | Santos | Paulista - A1 |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Santos | 1–0 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Palmeiras | 2–0 | Santos | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.NeymarSuspended
- OutArthur MeloMuscle
- OutG. EscobarNot available
Show 4 more
- OutGabriel BrazaoShoulder
- OutLucas VerissimoInjury
- OutVinicius LiraKnee
- OutWillian AraoNot available
- OutJefteKnee
- OutPaulinhoNot available
- OutVitor RoqueNot available
Show 1 more
- DoubtR. SosaInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Palmeiras
- 55 km
- Rest days
- Santos 3Palmeiras 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Santos 2 · Palmeiras 4
- Weather at kick-off
- 22°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Flavio Rodrigues De Souza
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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