Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Atletico-MG 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: a tight derby with Atletico-MG marginally favoured thanks to their unbeaten home run, but Cruzeiro's away scoring and better rest keep it near a coin flip. Goals look slightly more likely than not, matching the 54% over line.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Atletico-MG's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely enough to make goals likely in this derby.
Atletico-MG score 1.69 per game at home, Cruzeiro 1.50 away, and Cruzeiro have both teams scored in 69% of matches. Cruzeiro fail to score only 12% of the time, while Atletico-MG keep clean sheets just 25% at home. That points to chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo in-form sides with plenty to play for, but Atletico-MG's home run matters.
Atletico-MG are unbeaten in five at home (W4 D1, 8 scored, 2 conceded) but have just 2 days' rest versus Cruzeiro's 5. That fixture load could blunt the hosts late on.
Atletico-MG: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look fair, though Cruzeiro's away record argues for caution on the home side.
Cruzeiro have won 4 of their last 6 including at Gremio, yet their away form is W1 L1 W1 L1 L1 with 11 scored and 12 conceded. Atletico-MG lost their last two away but won three of four before that. The 38-28-34 split and 54% over line both look about right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Atletico-MG are slight favourites at 38%, with Cruzeiro on 34% and the draw on 28%. Atletico-MG are 6th and Cruzeiro 4th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Atletico-MG won three and Cruzeiro four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atletico-MG win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Cruzeiro win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Atletico-MG and 1.4 from Cruzeiro. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 28% | 34% | Stats preview | #1662 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atletico-MG: last 6
LLWWWD · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Flamengo | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Oct | at Atletico Torque CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Atletico Torque CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Atletico Paranaense | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWWWD
Cruzeiro: last 6
WWLWWL · 13 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Remo | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Gremio | 4–2 | W |
| 13 Oct | at RB Bragantino | 2–4 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Sao Paulo | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Vitoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Santos | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLWLL
Season stats
| Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.59 |
| 1.19 | Goals conceded per game | 1.44 |
| 1.69 | Scored per game at home | 1.69 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 69% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 28% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 32 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Atletico-MG 2Cruzeiro 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atletico-MG 3 · Cruzeiro 2
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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