Coritiba vs Grêmio prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Coritiba to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three read a close match: Coritiba's home form and higher position pull against Grêmio's historical grip on this fixture. The published 44-27-29 split is broadly fair, maybe a shade home-heavy given the head-to-head. On goals, leaky defences and 53% both-teams-score sit exactly on the 50% over-2.5 line, so expect a tight, genuinely two-sided call.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Grêmio's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Grêmio favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides leak goals, and the 2.5 line sits right on the fence.
Coritiba concede 1.58 per game and Grêmio 1.42, with clean sheets at just 19% apiece. Coritiba score 1.33 at home, Grêmio only 0.60 away, but Grêmio's both-teams-score rate is 61%. The model reads 1.5 vs 1.2 expected goals, matching the 50% over-2.5 line.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureCoritiba's home form steadies them against a Grêmio side out of rhythm.
Coritiba sit 12th on 39 points (W10 D9 L12) and have taken a D D L W W return at home, scoring 9 in their last 5 there. Grêmio are 18th on 31 points and winless in six, with one away draw in their last five. Both had nine days' rest, so freshness evens out.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongGrêmio's head-to-head dominance makes the home price look slightly generous.
I lean a few points away from the published home number.
Grêmio: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Coritiba are slight favourites at 44%, with Grêmio on 29% and the draw on 27%. Coritiba are 12th and Grêmio 18th in Brasileirão Série A. Neither side has won any of their last five league games.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Coritiba win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Grêmio win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Coritiba and 1.2 from Grêmio. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 27% | 29% | Stats preview | #1530 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Coritiba: last 6
LDLLDL · 5 scored, 16 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Botafogo | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Fluminense | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Vasco DA Gama | 0–5 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DDLWW
Grêmio: last 6
LDDDLL · 7 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 2–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | at Botafogo | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| Coritiba | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 1.58 | Goals conceded per game | 1.42 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.56 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 52% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 52% | Both teams scored | 61% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 32% | Failed to score | 32% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Grêmio | 32 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Coritiba won 0, Grêmio 5, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Grêmio | 1–0 | Coritiba | Serie A |
| 1 Nov 2023 | Coritiba | 1–2 | Grêmio | Serie A |
| 25 Jun 2023 | Grêmio | 5–1 | Coritiba | Serie A |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Coritiba | 1–1 | Grêmio | Serie A |
| 7 Oct 2020 | Grêmio | 2–1 | Coritiba | Serie A |
| 15 Oct 2017 | Coritiba | 0–1 | Grêmio | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.Thiago SantosSuspended
- OutLucas RonierKnee
- DoubtLucas TavernaNot available
- Susp.Walter KannemannSuspended
- OutJ. CabralNot available
- OutDanilo BarbosaInjury
Show 2 more
- OutB. G. Joao PedroInjury
- OutJ. NardoniNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Grêmio
- 547 km
- Rest days
- Coritiba 9Grêmio 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Coritiba 1 · Grêmio 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Ramon Abatti
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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