Coritiba vs Vitória prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Coritiba to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The goals picture is genuinely split - leaky defences argue for over 2.5, but Vitória's poor away scoring and Coritiba's recent blanks pull the other way, so the 50% over line looks about right.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Vitória's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Vitória favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, but neither side scores enough to promise a shootout.
Coritiba concede 1.56 per game and keep clean sheets just 19% of the time; Vitória concede 1.44 and score only 0.75 per game away. Both teams score in 54% of the published numbers, and Coritiba's home games have seen 7 scored and 8 conceded in the last five.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table safety means little pressure, but Coritiba's heavy recent defeats dent morale.
Coritiba sit 12th on 39 points, Vitória 14th on 38 - just one point apart with six games left. The hosts have three days' rest to the visitors' five.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's home lean looks generous given Coritiba's collapse in recent weeks.
Coritiba have lost four straight league games by heavy margins, yet are priced at 41%. The 50% over 2.5 line sits above Vitória's 41% season rate but below Coritiba's 50%, so it looks fair.
Vitória: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
Coritiba are slight favourites at 41%, with Vitória on 32% and the draw on 27%. Coritiba are 12th and Vitória 14th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Coritiba won none and Vitória one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Coritiba win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Vitória win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Coritiba and 1.2 from Vitória. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 27% | 32% | Stats preview | #1661 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Coritiba: last 6
LLDLLD · 4 scored, 15 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Gremio | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Botafogo | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Fluminense | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Vasco DA Gama | 0–5 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDDLW
Vitória: last 6
DDLWLD · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Atletico Paranaense | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Oct | at Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Chapecoense-sc | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Cruzeiro | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDLL
Season stats
| Coritiba | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.19 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 1.56 | Goals conceded per game | 1.44 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.44 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 34% |
| 34% | Failed to score | 28% |
League matches only, 32 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitória | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
Match context
- Travel for Vitória
- 1,786 km
- Rest days
- Coritiba 3Vitória 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Coritiba 2 · Vitória 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 7 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
