Grêmio vs Athletico-PR prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Athletico-PR 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The table gap and rest advantage back the away side, while Grêmio's low over rate keeps the goals call finely balanced.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Athletico-PR's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences and lively attacks point to goals on both sides.
Both teams score in 59% of each side's matches, and Athletico-PR's last six include a 4-1 win and a 3-3 draw.
Athletico-PR: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAthletico-PR's position and freshness make them worthy favourites in Porto Alegre.
Athletico-PR sit 3rd on 54 points from 32 games; Grêmio are 17th on 34, eight points adrift of them. Grêmio have won once in their last six and their home form reads L D D L W.
Athletico-PR: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away favouritism looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high.
The 38-34-28 split matches the season records: Athletico-PR score 1.56 per game to Grêmio's 1.09. But Grêmio's last six include three draws and a 0-0, and only 44% of their matches go over 2.5, so 50% for over looks slightly generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Athletico-PR are slight favourites at 38%, with Grêmio on 34% and the draw on 28%. Grêmio are 17th and Athletico-PR 3rd in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Grêmio won one and Athletico-PR two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Grêmio win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Athletico-PR win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Grêmio and 1.4 from Athletico-PR. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 28% | 38% | Stats preview | #1710 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Grêmio: last 6
WLDDDL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 2–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | at Botafogo | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDDLW
Athletico-PR: last 6
DLWDWD · 12 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Palmeiras | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Chapecoense-sc | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Bahia | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDLW
Season stats
| Grêmio | Athletico-PR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.09 | Goals scored per game | 1.56 |
| 1.38 | Goals conceded per game | 1.19 |
| 1.56 | Scored per game at home | 1.69 |
| 0.62 | Scored per game away | 1.44 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 59% | Both teams scored | 59% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 32 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Grêmio | 32 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Athletico-PR
- 547 km
- Rest days
- Grêmio 3Athletico-PR 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Grêmio 2 · Athletico-PR 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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