Bahia vs São Paulo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bahia to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The coach and sceptic see modest goal leanings just above the line, the dressing room sees a tight mid-table contest, so the 52% over figure looks reasonable.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Bahia are underrated; The Sceptic thinks São Paulo are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBahia's home scoring edge meets a São Paulo side that rarely scores away
Bahia score 1.44 per game at home while São Paulo manage just 0.75 away, conceding 7 in their last 5 on the road. Both teams score in 62% of Bahia's matches, and the season's scoring environment sits at 2.66 goals per match.
Bahia: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table stakes and equal rest point to a tense, low-margin contest
Bahia sit 7th on 50 points, São Paulo 9th on 43, both from 32 games with equal rest of 4 days. Bahia's home form reads L W W W W D, while São Paulo's last 6 show three wins in six, so neither arrives in crisis.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSão Paulo's head-to-head dominance makes 26% look a touch short
Yet their away form is D L L L L with one goal scored, so the market's 48-26-26 split looks broadly fair, maybe slightly kind to Bahia.
São Paulo: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Bahia are favourites at 48%, with São Paulo on 26% and the draw on 26%. Bahia are 7th and São Paulo 9th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Bahia won one and São Paulo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bahia win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- São Paulo win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Bahia and 1.1 from São Paulo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 26% | 26% | Stats preview | #1718 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bahia: last 6
DLWLLW · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Santos | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Flamengo | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Mirassol | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Atletico Paranaense | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Remo | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWWD
São Paulo: last 6
DWWLLW · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Mirassol | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Cruzeiro | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| Bahia | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.41 | Goals scored per game | 1.16 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.44 | Scored per game at home | 1.56 |
| 1.38 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 28% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 32 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | São Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bahia won 1, São Paulo 4, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | São Paulo | 2–2 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 26 Oct 2025 | São Paulo | 2–0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 31 May 2025 | Bahia | 2–1 | São Paulo | Serie A |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Bahia | 0–3 | São Paulo | Serie A |
| 30 Jun 2024 | São Paulo | 3–1 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 29 Nov 2023 | Bahia | 0–1 | São Paulo | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.KanuSuspended
- OutLeo VieiraKnee
- Susp.Iago BorduchiSuspended
- OutArturNot available
- OutN. BosshardtNot available
Show 5 more
- OutButaKnee
- OutCaulyNot available
- OutD. DuarteKnee
- OutJonathan CalleriNot available
- DoubtFerreiraInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for São Paulo
- 1,455 km
- Rest days
- Bahia 4São Paulo 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bahia 2 · São Paulo 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 8 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Anderson Daronco
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
