Corinthians vs Mirassol prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Corinthians to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three see Corinthians as favourites but shakier than the 56% suggests, with the Dressing Room and Sceptic both noting the six-match losing run against a Mirassol side unbeaten in three. On goals, the Coach leans slightly over while the others stay near the published 47%, so a close, low-to-moderate scoring home win is the consensus reading.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Mirassol's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Mirassol favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides leak goals; a two-sided game looks likelier than the prices suggest.
Corinthians concede 1.31 per game and keep clean sheets just 31% of the time; Mirassol score 1.41 per game away but concede 1.41 overall with only 9% clean sheets. Both-teams-score rates of 59% and 66% point to chances at both ends.
Corinthians: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Corinthians' home collapse makes this tighter than the table says.
Corinthians sit 18th on 33 points from 32 games, below Mirassol's 37, and have lost five straight home games while scoring just three in those five.
Mirassol: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks generous given Corinthians' form, but the total looks about right.
Corinthians have lost six on the spin and scored one or none in five of those, yet the market makes them 56% favourites. Mirassol's away record (L D W L D, four scored) is modest, so the 18% away price looks fair. Over 2.5 at 47% matches both sides' 47% season rate.
Mirassol: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Corinthians are favourites at 56%, with Mirassol on 18% and the draw on 26%. Corinthians are 18th and Mirassol 15th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Corinthians won none and Mirassol two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Corinthians win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Mirassol win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Corinthians and 0.9 from Mirassol. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 26% | 18% | Stats preview | #1772 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Corinthians: last 6
LDLLLL · 6 scored, 14 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Vasco DA Gama | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Palmeiras | 1–4 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Internacional | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Fluminense | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLLL
Mirassol: last 6
DWLDWD · 8 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Internacional | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | at RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Botafogo | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Vitoria | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: LDWLD
Season stats
| Corinthians | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | Goals scored per game | 1.16 |
| 1.31 | Goals conceded per game | 1.41 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.41 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 0.87 |
| 47% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| 59% | Both teams scored | 66% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 32 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Mirassol
- 424 km
- Rest days
- Corinthians 6Mirassol 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Corinthians 2 · Mirassol 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 21°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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