Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fiorentina to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean the same way: Fiorentina's home status keeps them near 44%, but their six-game league losing run and 0% clean sheets temper confidence, while Atalanta's poor away record (four straight away defeats) stops them being rated higher.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Atalanta's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Atalanta favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFiorentina concede 2.38 per game with 0% clean sheets; Atalanta concede 1.88 with 12%. Atalanta score 2.20 per game away, Fiorentina just 0.75 at home, so the visitors carry the sharper edge.
Atalanta: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Fiorentina's crisis is deeper and pressure is on them
Fiorentina sit 18th with 4 points from 8 (W1 D1 L6, 9-19) against Atalanta 11th on 10 points (W3 D1 L4, 14-15). Fiorentina have lost six of their last six league games and are winless in five at home (L D W L L). Both had 4 days' rest, though Atalanta played three games in 14 days.
Atalanta: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks generous given Fiorentina's form, but not wildly wrong
Fiorentina's last six league games are all defeats or the Napoli draw, conceding 19 in 8, yet they are priced at 44%. Atalanta have lost four of their last five away (L L L L W) and score only 1.00 per game on the road, which tempers their 30%.
Fiorentina: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Fiorentina are slight favourites at 44%, with Atalanta on 30% and the draw on 26%. Fiorentina are 18th and Atalanta 11th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Fiorentina won one and Atalanta one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fiorentina win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Atalanta win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Fiorentina and 1.4 from Atalanta. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 25% | 30% | Stats preview | #1705 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fiorentina: last 6
LLLDWW · 11 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Inter | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Como | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Genoa | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Pisa Coppa Italia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Venezia | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWLL
Atalanta: last 6
DLLWWL · 12 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Frosinone | 4–4 | D |
| 22 Oct | at Ajax UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at AC Milan | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Venezia | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 2.38 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 88% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutF. ParisiKnee
- OutR. SottilBack
- DoubtA. AttaAbdominal strain
Show 2 more
- DoubtM. PongracicMuscle
- DoubtL. RanieriLeg
- OutI. HienMuscle
- OutS. KolasinacThigh
- OutO. KossounouThigh
Show 5 more
- OutG. RaspadoriThigh
- DoubtR. BellanovaMuscle
- DoubtF. KessieCalf
- DoubtG. ScalviniThigh
- DoubtK. SulemanaKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Atalanta
- 246 km
- Rest days
- Fiorentina 4Atalanta 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fiorentina 2 · Atalanta 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- P. Vanoli
- Fiorentina, since Oct 2026
- M. Sarri
- Atalanta, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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