Frosinone vs Lecce prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Frosinone to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The only soft spot is the total, where the sceptic trims the 67% over 2.5 slightly given Lecce's blunt attack, though a high-scoring game remains the more likely outcome.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFrosinone's home scoring should test a Lecce defence missing key men
Frosinone average 2.25 goals per home game and have won three of their last five at home, scoring 13. Lecce concede 1.75 per game and have failed to score in half of theirs. Both teams score in 63% of the market's matches; Lecce's own BTTS rate is just 25%.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFrosinone's stronger position and home run make them clear favourites
Frosinone sit 6th on 14 points from 8 games; Lecce are 12th on 9 with five defeats and no draws. Frosinone have won four of their last six overall. Both teams had 4 days' rest, but Lecce travel 429 km with six players out, which strains a thin squad.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks fair, but 67% for over 2.5 may be a touch high
Frosinone's 58% is supported by form and a 2.2 expected goals figure. Yet Lecce's matches sit at 62% over 2.5 and they failed to score in 50% of games; with six absentees, their 1.2 expected goals looks generous. I'd shade the total line slightly below the published 67%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Frosinone are favourites at 58%, with Lecce on 19% and the draw on 23%. Frosinone are 6th and Lecce 12th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Frosinone won two and Lecce two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Frosinone win or draw
- 81%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Lecce win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Frosinone and 1.2 from Lecce. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 22% | 19% | Stats preview | #1688 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Frosinone: last 6
DWLWDW · 14 scored, 12 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Atalanta | 4–4 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Sassuolo | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Napoli | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWLW
Lecce: last 6
LWLLWL · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Udinese | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Bologna | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sep | at Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLWL
Season stats
| Frosinone | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.62 | Goals conceded per game | 1.75 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutF. GrillitschThigh
- Susp.K. GasparSuspended
- OutL. CoulibalyThigh
- OutI. IlicThigh
Show 3 more
- OutS. PierottiAnkle
- DoubtM. BerishaThigh
- DoubtTiago GabrielInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Lecce
- 429 km
- Rest days
- Frosinone 4Lecce 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Frosinone 2 · Lecce 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Alvini
- Frosinone, since Oct 2026
- E. Di Francesco
- Lecce, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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