AC Milan vs Bologna prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
AC Milan to win: 60%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Milan's unbeaten league start, strong home scoring and superior rest frame them as clear favourites, while Bologna's away wins give the visitors a faint hope. Goal expectations (1.9 vs 0.9) sit slightly above the over 2.5 line at 52%, with the sceptic most comfortable on the win rather than the goals market.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMilan's home scoring engine meets a Bologna side that rarely fails to score away, pointing to a goals-friendly night.
Milan average 2.67 goals per game at home against a Bologna defence conceding 1.25 per game, and the league-wide scoring environment sits at 3.01 goals per match. Bologna have scored in every away sample but have kept only 12% clean sheets, while Milan have blanked in 0% of matches this season.
AC Milan: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMilan's unbeaten run and fresher legs should tell; Bologna arrive with more recovery time but a thinner squad.
Milan sit 4th on 18 points from 8 games, unbeaten with a 16-7 goal record; Bologna are 13th on 8 points with 4 defeats. Milan play a fourth game in 14 days on 2 days' rest, but Bologna's own absences - Orsolini, Holm, Piccoli - blunt their travelling threat.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMilan at 60% looks fair, but the over 2.5 at 52% leans slightly generous to goals.
Bologna won two of the last six meetings and won the most recent San Siro fixture 0-1, yet Milan lead the H2H 3-2 with 2.7 goals per game.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
AC Milan are clear favourites at 60%, with Bologna on 17% and the draw on 23%. AC Milan are 4th and Bologna 13th in Serie A. In their last five league games, AC Milan won three and Bologna two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AC Milan win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Bologna win or draw
- 40%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.9 goals from AC Milan and 0.9 from Bologna. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 23% | 17% | Stats preview | #1685 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AC Milan: last 6
WLWWDW · 13 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Udinese | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Bournemouth UEFA Europa League | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Atalanta | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Sassuolo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWLW
Bologna: last 6
WLWDLD · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Cagliari | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Inter | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Lecce | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 away: WWLL
Season stats
| AC Milan | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AC Milan won 3, Bologna 2, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | Bologna | 0–3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 14 Sep 2025 | AC Milan | 1–0 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 14 May 2025 | AC Milan | 0–1 | Bologna | Coppa Italia |
| 9 May 2025 | AC Milan | 3–1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 27 Feb 2025 | Bologna | 2–1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 27 Jan 2024 | AC Milan | 2–2 | Bologna | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutS. ChukwuezeHip
- OutM. GabbiaThigh
- OutA. SaelemaekersAnkle
Show 4 more
- DoubtM. GilaAnkle
- DoubtR. Loftus-CheekThigh
- DoubtD. MoreiraThigh
- DoubtA. RabiotCalf
- OutE. HolmThigh
- OutR. OrsoliniThigh
- OutR. PiccoliHamstring
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Bologna
- 200 km
- Rest days
- AC Milan 2Bologna 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: AC Milan 4 · Bologna 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Juan Luca Sacchi
- Coaches
- Ruben Amorim
- AC Milan, since Oct 2026
- Raffaele Palladino
- Bologna, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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