Genoa vs Juventus prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Juventus to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The sceptic's head-to-head evidence of tight, low-scoring meetings nudges the over slightly below the published 44%, so expect a visitors' win with goals at a premium.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersJuventus' away scoring and Genoa's leaky defence point to a controlled away win
Genoa concede 1.62 per game with clean sheets in just 12% of matches, while Juventus score 1.50 per game away and keep clean sheets 50% of the time. Genoa fail to score in 38% of matches, and Juventus only 12%. That split favours the visitors without promising a goal-fest.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table gap and Juventus' heavier fixture load shape a tense away win
Juventus sit 7th on 14 points from 8 games; Genoa are 16th on 7 points after five defeats. Genoa have won two of their last three home league games, but Juventus have played four games in 14 days to Genoa's two, and both had 3 days' rest. The points gap says the visitors must take this.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 57% on Juventus looks fair, but the 44% over 2.5 looks a touch high
Head-to-head backs the away favouritism: Juventus have won 4 of the last 6, all low-scoring, 1.5 goals per game and a 2-0 this season. The prices look broadly right, with the total slightly generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Juventus are favourites at 57%, with Genoa on 18% and the draw on 25%. Genoa are 16th and Juventus 7th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Genoa won two and Juventus two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Genoa win or draw
- 43%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Juventus win or draw
- 83%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Genoa and 1.7 from Juventus. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17% | 25% | 57% | Stats preview | #1687 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Genoa: last 6
WLWLWD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Venezia | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Parma | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Sudtirol Coppa Italia | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWWDL
Juventus: last 6
WDLWDW · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Lecce | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Rennes UEFA Europa League | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Lazio | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Celta Vigo UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Cagliari | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWDLW
Season stats
| Genoa | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 1.62 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 8 | +9 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 5 | Como | 8 | +7 | 17 | WWDLW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | +3 | 14 | WLDWL |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | -3 | 13 | LLDWW |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | +3 | 11 | DLWDW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | -2 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | -4 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | -7 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Genoa won 0, Juventus 4, 2 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Juventus | 2–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Genoa | 0–1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Juventus | 1–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Genoa | 0–3 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Juventus | 0–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 15 Dec 2023 | Genoa | 1–1 | Juventus | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutE. HavelAnkle
- OutD. SowThigh
- OutL. VenturinoKnee
Show 2 more
- DoubtK. EhizibueMuscle
- DoubtS. WiafeAbdominal strain
- OutZ. CelikMuscle
- OutF. ConceicaoShoulder
- OutJ. EkhatorMuscle
Show 6 more
- OutN. GonzalezCalf
- OutK. GrabaraKnee
- OutM. LocatelliKnee
- OutA. MilikNot available
- OutK. ThuramKnee
- OutK. YildizFoot
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Juventus
- 123 km
- Rest days
- Genoa 3Juventus 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Genoa 2 · Juventus 4
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Daniele Doveri
- Coaches
- D. De Rossi
- Genoa, since Oct 2026
- L. Spalletti
- Juventus, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
