Monza vs Napoli prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Napoli to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three analyses suggest a game with goals, leaning slightly towards the away side due to league position, but acknowledging Monza's strong home scoring rate. The market's high probability for a Napoli win is supported by their table position, yet the poor form of the visitors and Monza's attacking threat temper that view.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Monza's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Monza favourites. The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMonza's potent home attack meets Napoli's defensive stability in a high-scoring encounter.
Monza scores 2.67 goals per game at home, while Napoli concedes only 1.25 goals per game overall. The season sees 88% of Monza's matches go over 2.5 goals.
Monza: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureNapoli holds a slight advantage in the standings, but Monza's recent home form is impressive.
Napoli sits 10th with 11 points from 8 games, compared to Monza's 15th position with 7 points. Monza has had 5 days rest, while Napoli has had 4 days rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNapoli's strong H2H record is challenged by their poor recent away form.
In the last 5 away games, Napoli scored 6 goals but conceded 8. Historically, in the last 6 meetings, Napoli won 4 matches.
Monza: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Napoli are favourites at 55%, with Monza on 22% and the draw on 23%. Monza are 15th and Napoli 10th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Monza won two and Napoli two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Monza win or draw
- 45%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Napoli win or draw
- 78%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Monza and 1.8 from Napoli. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 1–3 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22% | 23% | 55% | Stats preview | #1734 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Monza: last 6
LWLWLD · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Torino | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Cagliari | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Lazio | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Parma | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 at home: WWLW
Napoli: last 6
DWLLWD · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs AS Roma | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Bodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Venezia | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Villarreal UEFA Champions League | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Frosinone | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDLW
Season stats
| Monza | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.62 |
| 2.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 88% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 88% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Monza won 1, Napoli 4, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | Monza | 0–1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Napoli | 2–0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Monza | 2–4 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 29 Dec 2023 | Napoli | 0–0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 14 May 2023 | Monza | 2–0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 21 Aug 2022 | Napoli | 4–0 | Monza | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. PessinaKnee
- OutJ. ZiolkowskiFoot
- DoubtY. MayeMuscle
- OutAlisson SantosMuscle
- OutA. BuongiornoKnee
- OutDavid NeresThigh
Show 3 more
- OutC. FavasuliThigh
- DoubtB. BadiashileInjury
- DoubtA. RrahmaniIllness
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Napoli
- 663 km
- Rest days
- Monza 5Napoli 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Monza 2 · Napoli 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Giovanni Ayroldi
- Coaches
- I. Juric
- Monza, since Oct 2026
- M. Allegri
- Napoli, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
