AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
AS Roma to win: 73%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three land on a strong Roma lean, with the coach and dressing room near the published 73% and the sceptic trimming it on head-to-head tightness. Goals lean over 2.5 but the sceptic's low-scoring head-to-head record keeps that call modest. Cagliari's away wins and lighter fixture load stop this from being a foregone conclusion.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Cagliari's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Cagliari favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersRoma's home scoring machine against Cagliari's away grit points to goals, mostly at one end.
Roma score 2.50 per game at home and keep clean sheets in 62% of matches, while Cagliari average just 0.50 away and fail to score in 38% of games. But Cagliari have won three of their last four away, so the visitors can pinch a goal in a game the hosts dominate.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnbeaten Roma at home carry the pressure and the points against a rested but erratic Cagliari.
Roma sit 3rd on 18 points from 8, unbeaten, and have won three of their last five at home. Cagliari are 9th on 13 but come off two heavy defeats.
Cagliari: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 73% on Roma looks a touch generous given recent head-to-head tightness.
The numbers give Roma 2.3 expected goals, but four of the last six head-to-heads produced under 2.5 goals and the 2025 meetings were 1-0 and 1-0. Cagliari's 25% over-rate and 38% clean-sheet rate hint the 58% over line is slightly high. I shade Roma down and the over down.
Cagliari: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
AS Roma are clear favourites at 73%, with Cagliari on 9% and the draw on 18%. AS Roma are 3rd and Cagliari 9th in Serie A. In their last five league games, AS Roma won two and Cagliari two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AS Roma win or draw
- 91%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- Cagliari win or draw
- 27%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 2.3 goals from AS Roma and 0.7 from Cagliari. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% | 18% | 9% | Stats preview | #1613 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AS Roma: last 6
DWWLDD · 14 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Napoli | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | 3–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Como | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWLDW
Cagliari: last 6
LLDWWW · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Bologna | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | at Monza | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Udinese | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sep | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 away: LWWW
Season stats
| AS Roma | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.38 | Goals scored per game | 0.75 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AS Roma won 4, Cagliari 1, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2026 | AS Roma | 2–0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Cagliari | 1–0 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 16 Mar 2025 | AS Roma | 1–0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Cagliari | 0–0 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 5 Feb 2024 | AS Roma | 4–0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Cagliari | 1–4 | AS Roma | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. BahKnee
- OutM. KoneMuscle
- OutL. PellegriniThigh
Show 2 more
- OutM. SvilarToe
- DoubtP. DybalaCalf
- OutM. FeliciKnee
- OutR. IdrissiKnee
- DoubtH. WinksBack
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Cagliari
- 411 km
- Rest days
- AS Roma 3Cagliari 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: AS Roma 4 · Cagliari 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 0 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Ermanno Feliciani
- Coaches
- G. Gasperini
- AS Roma, since Oct 2026
- F. Pisacane
- Cagliari, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
