Inter vs Fiorentina prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Inter to win: 70%, about 2 in 3
The Verdict
Our numbers moved slightly away from the bookmakers by reducing the home win probability and increasing the draw probability. The Sceptic's view was not followed because the model accounted for the structural impact of Lautaro Martínez's absence on Inter's attacking chemistry.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Fiorentina's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Fiorentina favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsInter's depth too strong for depleted Fiorentina despite Lautaro absence
Inter remain without Lautaro Martinez, Luis Henrique and Pavard, yet start Thuram, Barella, Calhanoglu and Bastoni (all reported out, not confirmed by the club). Fiorentina miss Ranieri, Atta and Parisi, with Drăgușin and Pongračić (both reported out, not confirmed by the club) in a makeshift back line behind De Gea.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureInter's strong form and league ambitions give them a significant advantage over a struggling Fiorentina.
Inter has avoided defeat in the last five Serie A matches and scored 21 goals in seven league fixtures. Fiorentina is in poor form, languishing in 18th place, and is on a three-game winless streak. Fiorentina is fighting against relegation.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongFiorentina's away record and attacking at Venezia suggest they are slightly underrated here.
Fiorentina have won once and lost twice on the road this season [verified data], a modest but not hopeless record. Their 4-2 win at Venezia on 11 September showed scoring potential away from home [verified data]. Inter are unbeaten at home, but four absences give the visitors a slimmer edge than the table implies.
Fiorentina: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Inter Milan, currently second in the table, faces a struggling Fiorentina side fighting against relegation. Inter enters the match in strong form, while Fiorentina is dealing with multiple injuries and selection headaches. The match is expected to be high-scoring given both teams' recent attacking output and defensive concerns.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Inter win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 83%
- Fiorentina win or draw
- 30%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Inter and 0.9 from Fiorentina. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 3–0 (8%), 1–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 72% | 16% | 11% | 69% |
| AI analysts | 66% | 20% | 14% | 63% |
| Our forecast | 70% | 17% | 13% | – |
Verdict: Our final probabilities slightly reduce the home win likelihood and increase the draw probability compared to the market. This shift is based on the perceived impact of Inter's missing primary striker.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% | 16% | 11% | Stats preview | #959 | |
| 2 | 71% | 17% | 12% | Full analysis | #1280 | |
| 3 | 70% | 17% | 13% | Official lineups | #1379 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Inter: last 6
WWLWDW · 17 scored, 10 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Shakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Bologna | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Club Brugge KV UEFA Champions League | 3–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Parma | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at AS Roma | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Udinese | 5–3 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Fiorentina: last 6
LLDWWL · 11 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Como | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Genoa | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Pisa Coppa Italia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 away: LWL
Season stats
| Inter | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.14 |
| 1.29 | Goals conceded per game | 2.43 |
| 3.75 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Inter won 4, Fiorentina 1, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Fiorentina | 1–1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Inter | 3–0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 10 Feb 2025 | Inter | 2–1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 6 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | 3–0 | Inter | Serie A |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Fiorentina | 0–1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 3 Sep 2023 | Inter | 4–0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 49I. Provedel
Defenders
- 31Y. Bisseck
- 25M. Akanji
- 95A. Bastoni
Midfielders
- 17A. Diouf
- 23N. Barella
- 20H. Çalhanoğlu
- 22H. Mkhitaryan
- 30Carlos Augusto
Forwards
- 9M. Thuram
- 94F. Esposito
Substitutes (12)
- 8P. Sučić
- 99D. Spence
- 5A. Stanković
- 48M. Mosconi
- 14A. Bonny
- 46L. Bovio
- 12R. Di Gennaro
- 32F. Dimarco
- 51L. Jakirović
- 53M. Lavelli
- 7P. Zieliński
- 1Josep Martínez
Goalkeeper
- 43David de Gea
Defenders
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 5M. Pongračić
- 21Valde
Midfielders
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 4M. Brescianini
Forwards
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 32Mateo Pellegrino
- 25A. Njie
Substitutes (12)
- 23Beto
- 33Viery
- 53O. Christensen
- 2Dodô
- 29W. Gnonto
- 42C. Inao Oulaï
- 17João Mário
- 19L. Lezzerini
- 28Pote
- 74Arnis Ademi
- 72B. Mazzeo
- 73Antonio Pirrò
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutC. JonesThigh
- OutLuis HenriqueThigh
- OutL. MartinezThigh
Show 3 more
- OutB. PavardThigh
- OutM. SpinacceNot available
- OutJ. StonesInjury
- OutA. AttaAbdominal strain
- OutF. ParisiKnee
- OutL. RanieriLeg
Show 1 more
- OutR. SottilBack
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Inter Milan is positioned second in the Serie A table with 19 points from seven matches.[1][2]
- Fiorentina is currently in 18th place, having accumulated only four points from seven games.[1][2]
- Inter has scored 21 goals across its seven league fixtures this season.[1][2]
- Fiorentina is currently on a three-game winless streak, including recent defeats against Como and Genoa.[2]
- Inter's home record this season shows four wins, zero draws, and zero losses.[1][2]
- Fiorentina's manager, Paolo Vanoli, is reportedly dealing with selection issues due to injuries.[2]
Sources
- sports.yahoo.com – Inter Milan vs Fiorentina – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-25)
- thefootballfaithful.com – Inter Milan vs Fiorentina – Match preview and team news - The Football Faithful (2026-10-25)
Match context
- Rest days
- Inter 3Fiorentina 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Inter 3 · Fiorentina 1
- Referee
- Maurizio Mariani
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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