Genoa vs Venezia prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Genoa to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only about a point from home to away as all three analysts, The Coach, The Dressing Room and The Sceptic, applied the same small 2-point shift towards Venezia. The Dressing Room's new-coach bounce argument was not fully followed, because such form-based effects after a single win are modest and the market already reflects the changed circumstances.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Venezia's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Venezia favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsGenoa's selection uncertainty hands Venezia's unchanged side a tactical edge.
Genoa's build-up is less settled: De Rossi weighs a back three against switching to a back four, Messias competes with the doubtful Baldanzi, while Colombo and Meichtry's status varies by report.
Venezia: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureGenoa are stuck on 4 points after losing at Roma, with De Rossi under real pressure. With both sides eyeing midweek games against Juventus and Inter, this six-pointer looks cagey.
Venezia: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongTight six-pointer; Venezia's settled side gives them a touch more than the price suggests.
Market has Genoa 44.2%, draw 29.2%, Venezia 26.6%; the model is nearly identical (45/27/28) with xG 1.55-1.16. Over 2.5 is priced 47.3% against a 3.0 goals-per-match league environment. No edge beyond a slight Venezia nudge.
Venezia: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Both sides sit in the bottom three with poor form, making this a relegationFixture with little margin. Genoa have 4 points and creative absences, while Venezia arrive on a first league win under new coach Davide Nicola. Availability doubts around several players make both lineups uncertain.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Genoa win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Venezia win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Genoa and 1.1 from Venezia. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 44% | 30% | 26% | 47% |
| Goals model | 45% | 27% | 28% | 51% |
| AI analysts | 42% | 28% | 30% | 49% |
| Our forecast | 43% | 30% | 27% | 47% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because a small availability edge for Venezia under a settled new-coach setup is offset by Genoa's home advantage in a tight relegation fixture.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 25% | 32% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1056 | |
| 2 | 44% | 29% | 27% | Prices moved | #1324 | |
| 3 | 43% | 29% | 27% | Full analysis | #1352 | |
| 4 | 43% | 30% | 27% | Official lineups | #1421 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Genoa: last 6
LWLWDL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | at AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Parma | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Sudtirol Coppa Italia | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWDLL
Venezia: last 6
WLLLLL · 7 scored, 14 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Napoli | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Atalanta | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 2 Sep | at Udinese Coppa Italia | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: LLLL
Season stats
| Genoa | Venezia | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.71 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.86 | Goals conceded per game | 2.29 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | -2 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | -4 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | -7 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Udinese | 7 | -7 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLWL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | -11 | 3 | LWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Genoa won 4, Venezia 2, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb 2025 | Genoa | 2–0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Venezia | 2–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 20 Jul 2024 | Venezia | 1–3 | Genoa | Friendlies Clubs |
| 22 Jul 2023 | Genoa | 1–4 | Venezia | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Genoa | 1–0 | Venezia | Serie B |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Venezia | 1–2 | Genoa | Serie B |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Bijlow
Defenders
- 34S. Otoa
- 5L. Østigård
- 22J. Vásquez
Midfielders
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 25H. Traorè
- 71S. Wiafe
- 2M. Mitaj
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
Forward
- 18M. Osmajić
Substitutes (14)
- 27A. Marcandalli
- 99F. Stolz
- 39D. Sommariva
- 16C. Drameh
- 32M. Frendrup
- 4Alexsandro Amorim
- 11E. Meichtry
- 8T. Baldanzi
- 20S. Sabelli
- 21Nikita Solodchenko
- 9Vítinha
- 29L. Colombo
- 31D. Puczka
- 14Lukas Klišys
Goalkeeper
- 1F. Stanković
Defenders
- 25R. Halhal
- 2M. Moreno
- 15Juan Jesus
Midfielders
- 18A. Hainaut
- 71Kike Pérez
- 19S. Sohm
- 26T. Bašić
- 5R. Haps
Forwards
- 10J. Yeboah
- 45A. Adams
Substitutes (15)
- 17A. Bella-Kotchap
- 96L. Montipò
- 3J. Schingtienne
- 77Toni Fernández
- 8Lamine Dabo
- 30M. Dagasso
- 56K. Lisman
- 20R. Sagrado
- 21Þ. Helgason
- 70P. Mazzocchi
- 6G. Busio
- 32A. Duncan
- 7A. Rrahmani
- 29L. Lauberbach
- 95A. Gomes
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutE. HavelAnkle
- OutD. SowThigh
- OutL. VenturinoKnee
Show 1 more
- DoubtF. MeichtryMuscle
- OutA. AdoranteHernia
- OutT. CorreiaThigh
- OutB. FranjicShoulder
Show 1 more
- OutM. SverkoHip
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Genoa sit 17th with 4 points from 7 league games and lost their last match 2-0 at AS Roma.[5]
- Venezia are 20th with 3 points but won their first league game of the season last round, beating Napoli under new coach Davide Nicola.[1][5]
- Both clubs face Champions League-calibre opponents next, Genoa hosting Juventus and Venezia hosting Inter on 28 October.[5]
- Genoa defender Østigård is one booking away from suspension.[6]
Sources
- tuttomercatoweb.com – Genoa-Venezia, le probabili formazioni: Messias e Baldanzi si giocano ...
- sosfanta.com – dal ruolo di El Shaarawy a Baldanzi, Hainaut, Traoré, Adams e Vitinha
- fantacalcio.it – Genoa-Venezia: le probabili formazioni e dove vederla in tv
- tuttosport.com – Genoa-Venezia: probabili formazioni e diretta. Dove si vede in tv e ...
- goal.com – Serie A: infortunati, squalificati e diffidati | Goal.com Italia
Match context
- Rest days
- Genoa 7Venezia 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Genoa 1 · Venezia 2
- Referee
- Simone Sozza
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
