Cagliari vs Bologna prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Bologna 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58% · bookies 59% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers moved slightly away from the bookmakers by increasing the probability of over 2.5 goals. The Sceptic's view regarding the underpriced home edge was not followed, as the home probability remained at 31% matching the market.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Cagliari's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Cagliari favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBologna's attack is stripped thin; Cagliari's absences are less costly at home.
Bologna miss Orsolini, Piccoli and Holm; Palladino must choose between returning Odgaard, Enem or a not-fully-fit Dovbyk up front. Cagliari's doubts are minor: Deiola-Mina at CB and Fazzini-Massolin-Fadera in midfield, with Trepy, Idrissi and Felici out. Both sides line up in back-four variants, Pisacane leaning 4-3-3 but predicted 4-4-1-1.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureCagliari's home response after the Monza defeat edges a Bologna side low on confidence
Both sides lost last matchday - Cagliari heavily to Monza, Bologna to Inter - and Bologna's league position is still described as poor. Cagliari are home at the Unipol Domus seeking redemption; Bologna must respond under pressure to climb the table.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongBologna's attack is gutted, home edge looks underpriced
The market prices Cagliari 32.7%, draw 31.3%, Bologna 36.1%, while the statistical model gives the home side 45% and just 24% away. Expected goals sit around 1.26-0.84 and the season averages 2.99 goals per match.
Cagliari: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Cagliari seeks a response after a heavy defeat while Bologna struggles with key attacking injuries and striker uncertainty. Both teams face significant personnel issues, making the match highly competitive.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cagliari win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 68%
- Bologna win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 67%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Cagliari and 1.2 from Bologna. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 31% | 32% | 37% | 41% |
| Goals model | 45% | 31% | 24% | 35% |
| AI analysts | 41% | 31% | 28% | 37% |
| Our forecast | 31% | 32% | 37% | 42% |
Verdict: The final probabilities remain very close to the market, with the only shift being a slight increase in the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% | 33% | 38% | Stats preview | #684 | |
| 2 | 33% | 31% | 36% | Prices moved | #868 | |
| 3 | 33% | 31% | 36% | Full analysis | #869 | |
| 4 | 31% | 32% | 37% | Updated news and prices | #985 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cagliari: last 6
LDWWWL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Monza | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Udinese | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sep | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Hellas Verona Coppa Italia | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWLLW
Bologna: last 6
LWDLDL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Inter | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Lecce | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | at Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 away: WLL
Season stats
| Cagliari | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cagliari won 1, Bologna 4, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Bologna | 0–0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Cagliari | 0–2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Bologna | 2–1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 29 Oct 2024 | Cagliari | 0–2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Cagliari | 2–1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2 Sep 2023 | Bologna | 2–1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1E. Caprile
Defenders
- 2Zé Pedro
- 14A. Deiola
- 15J. Rodríguez
- 33A. Obert
Midfielders
- 4A. Romano
- 6H. Winks
- 8M. Adopo
- 79Y. Massolin
- 70D. Maldini
Forward
- 31P. Mendy
Substitutes (15)
- 32Ivan Stoyanov Sulev
- 39A. Fadera
- 24G. Aurelio
- 20R. Ciervo
- 10J. Fazzini
- 21R. Gagliardini
- 9Kevin Carlos
- 22R. Kofler
- 27J. Liteta
- 26Y. Mina
- 18M'Bala Nzola
- 23B. Radunović
- 12A. Sherri
- 28Y. Sugawara
- 35A. Sugamele
Goalkeeper
- 1Ł. Skorupski
Defenders
- 36M. Darmian
- 16N. Casale
- 3A. Theate
Midfielders
- 20N. Zortea
- 19L. Ferguson
- 4T. Pobega
- 33Juan Miranda
Forwards
- 10F. Bernardeschi
- 21J. Odgaard
- 28N. Cambiaghi
Substitutes (14)
- 6N. Moro
- 25M. Pessina
- 41M. Vitík
- 11S. Mbangula
- 18M. Libra
- 14T. Heggem
- 72U. Happonen
- 5E. Helland
- 22J. Enem
- 17O. El Azzouzi
- 9A. Dovbyk
- 29L. De Silvestri
- 23R. Alhassane
- 8M. Amondarain
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. FeliciKnee
- OutR. IdrissiKnee
- OutY. TrepyInjury
- OutE. HolmThigh
- OutR. OrsoliniThigh
- OutR. PiccoliHamstring
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Cagliari sits in 8th place with 13 points after seven league matches.[1][2][3][4][5]
- Bologna is currently in 15th place, having secured only five points from seven games.[1][2][3][4][5]
- Cagliari's recent form includes a heavy 0-4 loss to Monza on October 19th.[1]
- Cagliari has a home record of one win, one draw, and one loss this season.[1][5]
- Bologna's league position remains poor despite a recent win against Lecce.[1]
Sources
- tuttomercatoweb.com – Cagliari-Bologna, le probabili formazioni: Fazzini più di Massolin ...
- corrieredellosport.it – Probabili formazioni Cagliari - Bologna 2026/2027 | 8° giornata
- tuttofantacalcio.it – Serie A, le probabili formazioni Cagliari-Bologna
- tuttosport.com – Probabili formazioni Cagliari - Bologna 2026/2027 | 8° giornata
- sosfanta.com – Cagliari-Bologna, le probabili formazioni: dal ruolo di Odgaard a ...
Match context
- Rest days
- Cagliari 4Bologna 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cagliari 2 · Bologna 2
- Referee
- Kevin Bonacina
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 2.99 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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