Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Atalanta to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 80% · bookies 73% · ✓ 8 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only about three points from home to away given Atalanta's defensive absences and Frosinone's form. The Sceptic's larger seven-point shift toward Frosinone was not followed in full, because Atalanta's strong home record and attacking options still justify keeping them ahead.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Frosinone's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsAtalanta's makeshift defence hands Frosinone a real chance in Bergamo
Atalanta are without Kolasinac, Scalvini, Kossounou and Hien, so Obrić and Zappacosta (reported out, not confirmed by the club) join Bellanova (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Kristensen (reported out, not confirmed by the club) in a patched back four. Frosinone start top scorer Raimondo with only Calvani's CB spot in doubt. Atalanta go 4-2-3-1 with Gaetano and Éderson as the pivot.
Frosinone: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form Frosinone visit a shaken Atalanta side on a losing run.
Atalanta sit 11th on 9 pts and have lost their last two, 2-3 at Milan and 0-2 to Ajax. Frosinone are 6th on 13 pts, beaten only by Juventus and Napoli, with Raimondo the league's top scorer after a big win over Sassuolo.
Frosinone: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongAtalanta's makeshift defence gives Frosinone more of a chance than the price suggests
Market makes Atalanta 51.4% at home, but the independent model gives 36/26/38 and Atalanta are missing four defenders. Over 2.5 at 73% looks high vs model 59% and xG ~1.5 each.
Frosinone: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Atalanta host sixth-placed Frosinone in Serie A matchday 8 with a severe defensive shortage: all four senior centre-backs are out. Frosinone arrive in strong form with the league's top scorer, Raimondo. Our numbers sit close to the market, with a slight move toward the away side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atalanta win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Frosinone win or draw
- 50%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 93%
- 3+ goals
- 80%
- 4+ goals
- 62%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 77%
- No
- 23%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Atalanta and 1.8 from Frosinone. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (8%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–2 (7%), 1–1 (6%), 3–1 (6%), 1–2 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 51% | 23% | 25% | 73% |
| Goals model | 36% | 26% | 38% | 59% |
| AI analysts | 37% | 25% | 38% | 73% |
| Our forecast | 50% | 23% | 27% | 80% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small shift from home to away because Atalanta's defensive absences and two straight defeats offset their home record, while Frosinone's form and Raimondo's scoring add away-side value.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 23% | 39% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1054 | |
| 2 | 51% | 23% | 25% | Prices moved | #1365 | |
| 3 | 50% | 23% | 27% | Full analysis | #1366 | |
| 4 | 50% | 23% | 27% | Official lineups | #1420 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atalanta: last 6
LLWWLL · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Ajax UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at AC Milan | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Venezia | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLWW
Frosinone: last 6
WLWDWD · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Sassuolo | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Napoli | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 2 Sep | at Sassuolo Coppa Italia | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: LDDW
Season stats
| Atalanta | Frosinone | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Goals scored per game | 1.86 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Atalanta won 4, Frosinone 1, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2024 | Atalanta | 5–0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Frosinone | 2–1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 20 Jan 2019 | Frosinone | 0–5 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 20 Aug 2018 | Atalanta | 4–0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 23 Jan 2016 | Frosinone | 0–0 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 30 Aug 2015 | Atalanta | 2–0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 29M. Carnesecchi
Defenders
- 16R. Bellanova
- 31T. Kristensen
- 40R. ObriÄ
- 77D. Zappacosta
Midfielders
- 13Éderson
- 70G. Gaetano
- 99E. Elmas
- 17C. De Ketelaere
- 11J. Rowe
Forward
- 90N. Krstović
Substitutes (9)
- 53M. Plaia
- 59N. Zalewski
- 57M. Sportiello
- 51M. Sonzogni
- 9G. Scamacca
- 10L. Samardžić
- 8Mario Pasalic
- 41J. Idele
- 47L. Bernasconi
Goalkeeper
- 22L. Palmisani
Defenders
- 20A. Oyono
- 2G. Cittadini
- 3G. Calvani
- 79G. Bracaglia
Midfielders
- 14G. Calò
- 73P. Masini
- 7F. Ghedjemis
- 10R. Schmid
- 17G. Kvernadze
Forward
- 9A. Raimondo
Substitutes (15)
- 5W. Amey
- 89T. Bobček
- 11D. Bîrligea
- 16Matteo Cichella
- 91S. Desplanches
- 34A. El Azzouzi
- 74Omar Fayed
- 40S. Fini
- 70L. Hasa
- 30I. Monterisi
- 12M. Pisseri
- 90E. Tchato
- 71A. Terzić
- 25K. Akpoguma
- 24A. Zerbin
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutI. HienMuscle
- OutF. KessieCalf
- OutS. KolasinacThigh
Show 4 more
- OutO. KossounouThigh
- OutG. RaspadoriThigh
- OutG. ScalviniThigh
- OutK. SulemanaKnee
- OutF. GrillitschThigh
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Atalanta sit 11th with 9 points from 7 league games, and all three of their league wins have come at home.[6]
- Frosinone are 6th with 13 points from 7 games, their only defeats coming against Juventus and Napoli.[3][6]
- Atalanta's defence is heavily depleted, with only Bellanova and Kristensen certain in the back line and Obric and Bernasconi favoured for the remaining spots.[1][2]
- Atalanta have an unresolved system doubt between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, with Sarri expected to switch to 4-2-3-1.[2][5]
- Krstovic is in form and favoured to start up front for Atalanta, with Scamacca among the bench options.[2][3]
Sources
- fantacalcio.it – Atalanta-Frosinone: le probabili formazioni e dove vederla in tv
- sosfanta.com – Atalanta-Frosinone, le probabili formazioni - SOS Fanta
- tuttosport.com – Atalanta-Frosinone: probabili formazioni e diretta. Dove si vede in tv ...
- tuttomercatoweb.com – Atalanta-Frosinone, le probabili formazioni: testa a testa tra Pasalic ...
- bbc.co.uk – Atalanta vs Frosinone: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-25)
- ciociariaoggi.it – Frosinone calcio - Ciociaria Oggi
Match context
- Rest days
- Atalanta 2Frosinone 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atalanta 4 · Frosinone 1
- Referee
- Livio Marinelli
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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