Lazio vs Parma prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Lazio to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 51% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because the market already prices in Lazio's form and Parma's crisis, with only a small nudge to the home side. The Dressing Room's two-point shift toward Parma was not followed, since the concrete facts — Lazio's unbeaten start and Parma's winless run under Gilardino — support rather than contradict the market's view.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Parma's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Parma favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsLazio near full-strength at home against a depleted, reshuffled Parma side points clearly to the hosts' edge in squad depth and availability gap overall body already says that.
Lazio miss Marušić, Rovella and Gudmundsson, but Gattuso can field the same XI that beat Juventus, with Cancellieri back for the bench and Taylor close to fit. Parma lack Almqvist, Nicolussi Caviglia, Elphege and Valenti, with a new-look back three and a goalkeeper battle between Corvi and Daffara.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureFlying Lazio host a winless, demoralised Parma chasing their first points under Gilardino — home dominance expected.
Parma are winless under Gilardino, 0 goals scored and 6 conceded, with the coach publicly admitting expectations have been disappointed. Gattuso is warning against complacency against the bottom side.
Parma: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongUnbeaten leaders host a winless, goalless Parma — home edge slightly larger than the market admits.
Market makes Lazio ~66% home with Parma at ~12%, despite Parma conceding 6 goals without scoring in Gilardino's first two games. With 2.99 goals per match league-wide, over 2.5 at 1.99 is near a coin flip. The question is whether a winless, goal-shy away side facing a 6W-1D leader is priced generously enough.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Second-placed Lazio, unbeaten in Serie A after seven games, host 19th-placed Parma, who have lost all three away matches and have no goals under Gilardino. Lazio are missing four players but expect to field the side that won 3-0 at Juventus. Parma also have several absences and an unsettled setup.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lazio win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Parma win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Lazio and 0.7 from Parma. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 66% | 22% | 12% | 49% |
| Goals model | 74% | 18% | 8% | 54% |
| AI analysts | 71% | 19% | 10% | 54% |
| Our forecast | 66% | 22% | 13% | 50% |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Lazio's form edge is largely priced in, while Gattuso's own complacency warning and rotation questions add variance that offsets Parma's weakness. The goals line remains near 50% given Lazio's defensive record this season.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% | 19% | 11% | Stats preview | #777 | |
| 2 | 66% | 22% | 12% | Prices moved | #867 | |
| 3 | 66% | 22% | 13% | Full analysis | #1015 | |
| 4 | 66% | 22% | 13% | Updated news and prices | #1171 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lazio: last 6
WWWDWW · 13 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Juventus | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Monza | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | at Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WDWL
Parma: last 6
LLWLDL · 4 scored, 12 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Torino | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Inter | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Como | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Cremonese Coppa Italia | 0–2 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Lazio | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.57 |
| 0.57 | Goals conceded per game | 1.86 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 57% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 57% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lazio won 3, Parma 1, 2 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Lazio | 1–1 | Parma | Serie A |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Parma | 0–1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Lazio | 2–2 | Parma | Serie A |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Parma | 3–1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 12 May 2021 | Lazio | 1–0 | Parma | Serie A |
| 21 Jan 2021 | Lazio | 2–1 | Parma | Coppa Italia |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 35C. Mandas
Defenders
- 15R. Floriani Mussolini
- 37J. Šutalo
- 25O. Provstgaard
- 17Nuno Tavares
Midfielders
- 16D. Frattesi
- 21R. Belahyane
- 24K. Taylor
Forwards
- 11G. Isaksen
- 14T. Noslin
- 10M. Zaccagni
Substitutes (14)
- 63F. Serra
- 47D. Renzetti
- 28A. Przyborek
- 3L. Pellegrini
- 23Pedraza
- 40E. Motta
- 2Diogo Leite
- 29M. Lazzari
- 71V. Farcomeni
- 5D. Doekhi
- 7F. Dele-Bashiru
- 32D. Cataldi
- 22M. Cancellieri
- 76Filipe Bordon
Goalkeeper
- 40E. Corvi
Defenders
- 15E. Del Prato
- 34Diego Carlos
- 37M. Troilo
- 72D. Drobnic
- 14E. Valeri
Midfielders
- 16M. Keita
- 4V. Sierro
- 32C. Ordoñez
Forwards
- 19E. Touré
- 9D. Romero
Substitutes (13)
- 29F. Carboni
- 3A. N'Diaye
- 8B. Cremaschi
- 30G. Daffara
- 25T. De Martis
- 7Ousmane Diallo
- 80G. Fabbian
- 20M. Frigan
- 22S. Ghidotti
- 47Abdou Konate
- 76S. Lontani
- 27S. Britschgi
- 10Adrián Bernabé
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. FurlanettoKnee
- OutA. GudmundssonShoulder
- OutA. MarusicMuscle
Show 1 more
- OutN. RovellaCalf
- OutP. AlmqvistCalf
- OutN. ElphegeIllness
- OutH. Nicolussi CavigliaThigh
Show 1 more
- OutL. ValentiCoach's decision
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Lazio are second in Serie A with 19 points from 7 games and are unbeaten this season, winning 6 and drawing 1.[7]
- Lazio have won two and drawn one of their three home league matches, and won all four away.[7]
- Lazio won 3-0 away at Juventus on 18 October in their most recent league match.[4]
- Parma are 19th with 4 points from 7 games and have lost all three away league matches this season.[7]
- Parma lost their opening two league games under Alberto Gilardino without scoring and conceding six.[4]
- A win or draw would put Lazio top of the table before Inter play Fiorentina on Sunday.[4]
- Lazio's next league fixture is on Tuesday at Sassuolo, and Pinamonti may be kept fresh for it.[6]
Sources
- fantacalcio.it – Lazio-Parma: le probabili formazioni e dove vederla in tv - Fantacalcio
- sosfanta.com – Lazio-Parma, le probabili formazioni: da Pinamonti a Romero e Sutalo
- sports.yahoo.com – Serie A: Lazio vs. Parma – probable line-ups, where to watch on TV
- thelaziali.com – Key Lazio Midfielder Should Recover for Parma – The Probable Lineup - The Laziali (2026-10-24)
- news.ssbcrack.com – Serie A Standings Update: Inter Milan Leads as Lazio and Roma Follow - SSBCrack (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Rest days
- Lazio 6Parma 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lazio 2 · Parma 1
- Referee
- Alberto Ruben Arena
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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