Como vs Sassuolo prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Como to win: 65%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 70% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because the qualitative case for Como, in the best league start since 1950 and unbeaten at home, against an error-prone Sassuolo, matches the price. The Sceptic's 2-point downward shift on Como was not followed, because Sassuolo's recent head-to-head edge looks largely explained by a squad now hit by absences.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsComo's fuller squad and home record edge a depleted Sassuolo defence
Sassuolo travel without Kone, Idzes, Boloca and Leysen, thinning their defensive options, and have made six errors leading to goals - most in the league - with Muric (reported out, not confirmed by the club) on three mistakes. Como miss Chalobah, Rodriguez and Diao, but Kean and Liberali may return. Como are unbeaten at home this season.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form, unbeaten-at-home Como face an error-prone Sassuolo side winless in three.
Como are fifth on 14 points, their best start since 1950, unbeaten at home and fresh off a 3-1 win over Fiorentina and a 4-1 CL win over Man Utd. Fabregas has publicly committed to Como despite reported interest from big clubs.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket slightly overrates Como; Sassuolo's recent H2H edge hints at more resistance than 6.18 implies.
The market makes Como ~66% favourites, but the goals model only reaches 58% and gives Sassuolo 20%. Sassuolo won the last league meeting 2-1 and eliminated Como from the Coppa Italia last season. Over 2.5 at ~69% looks fair in a 2.99 goals-per-game environment.
Como: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Como, fifth and unbeaten at home, host a Sassuolo side winless in three and missing four defenders and midfielders. Sassuolo's league-high error count may hand the home side further openings. Recent head-to-head results, though, favour Sassuolo.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Como win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Sassuolo win or draw
- 35%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Como and 1.2 from Sassuolo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (8%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 65% | 20% | 15% | 70% |
| Goals model | 58% | 22% | 20% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 60% | 21% | 18% | 65% |
| Our forecast | 65% | 20% | 15% | 70% |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay at the market level because Como's home record, form and Sassuolo's absences and error rate are already reflected in the price, while Sassuolo's recent head-to-head edge offsets any case for raising the home side further.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% | 20% | 16% | Stats preview | #685 | |
| 2 | 66% | 19% | 15% | Full analysis | #870 | |
| 3 | 65% | 20% | 15% | Updated news and prices | #986 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Como: last 6
WWLDLW · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Manchester United UEFA Champions League | 4–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Fiorentina | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Feyenoord UEFA Champions League | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs AS Roma | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: WDWW
Sassuolo: last 6
LDLWDD · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Frosinone | 2–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Monza | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs Frosinone Coppa Italia | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: LLDL
Season stats
| Como | Sassuolo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 1.71 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Como won 2, Sassuolo 1, 0 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2026 | Sassuolo | 2–1 | Como | Serie A |
| 28 Nov 2025 | Como | 2–0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Como | 3–0 | Sassuolo | Coppa Italia |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Butez
Defenders
- 27Yan Couto
- 53Willy Kambwala Ndengushi
- 2M. Kempf
- 16Kaiki
Midfielders
- 21S. Ricci
- 5M. Perrone
- 8M. Caqueret
- 7L. da Cunha
- 20M. Baturina
Forward
- 9T. Douvikas
Substitutes (11)
- 13A. Dossena
- 18E. Goldaniga
- 42J. Addai
- 15A. Lahdo
- 6Luis Milla
- 10N. Paz
- 4Jacobo Ramón Naveros
- 97Robert Sánchez
- 28I. Smolčić
- 3Álex Valle
- 22M. Vigorito
Goalkeeper
- 80S. Turati
Defenders
- 20I. Van der Brempt
- 15D. Ćaleta-Car
- 5Fali Candé
- 33Rafael Obrador
Midfielders
- 17Vasilije Adžić
- 18N. Matić
- 10D. Berardi
- 50D. Bakola
- 25B. Domínguez
Forward
- 9K. Bowie
Substitutes (15)
- 94S. Esposito
- 8A. Ghion
- 35L. Lipani
- 49A. Murić
- 26C. Odenthal
- 77N. Pierini
- 12G. Satalino
- 19L. Skjellerup
- 55I. Sulemana
- 42K. Thorstvedt
- 7C. Volpato
- 6S. Walukiewicz
- 3J. Doig
- 46S. Cinquegrano
- 45A. Laurienté
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutT. ChalobahInjury
- OutA. DiaoThigh
- OutM. KeanLeg
Show 2 more
- OutM. LiberaliLeg
- OutJ. RodriguezInjury
- OutD. BolocaMuscle
- OutJ. IdzesMuscle
- OutI. KoneBroken Leg
Show 2 more
- OutF. LeysenKnee
- OutY. PazKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Como are fifth in Serie A with 14 points from seven games, the club's best start since 1950.[1]
- Sassuolo are winless away in the league this season, with three defeats and one draw from four trips.[1]
- Sassuolo have conceded the most goals in the league from individual errors, with goalkeeper Muric making his third mistake of the season against Frosinone.[1]
- Como beat Fiorentina 3-1 in the league last week and then won 4-1 against Manchester United in the Champions League.[1]
- Sassuolo sit 13th with eight points, six behind Como.[1]
- Domenico Berardi remains Sassuolo's key attacker, with 132 Serie A goals since 2013.[1]
Sources
- news.laodong.vn – Como vs Sassuolo Serie A Match Preview - Laodong.vn (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Rest days
- Como 2Sassuolo 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Como 4 · Sassuolo 2
- Referee
- Davide Di Marco
- Coaches
- Cesc Fàbregas
- Como, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 2.99 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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