Napoli vs AS Roma prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (AS Roma 37%)
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 53% · ✓ 6 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers': The Sceptic argued for a 4-point shift towards AS Roma, but we only moved away by one point because Roma have not won at the Maradona since 2018 and are missing four first-choice players. The Dressing Room's view was not followed in one respect: its suggestion that the goals line would be crossed ran against Roma's league-best defence, so we left over 2.5 near the market.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think AS Roma's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsAS Roma's defensive structure and motivation give them the edge over a rotating Napoli squad.
Napoli is facing a selection crisis with Neres, Buongiorno, and Favasuli out, forcing rotation of players like De Bruyne (reported out, not confirmed by the club). Both teams are predicted to use a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Malen leading the line for Roma.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureRoma's unbeaten domestic form and defensive strength give them the edge over an inconsistent Napoli.
Roma is unbeaten in Serie A, holding the best defensive record in the league. Napoli is under pressure following a 1-0 defeat at home. Both teams secured wins in the Champions League midweek.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongAS Roma's defensive resilience and historical performance at the stadium give them the advantage.
Napoli has struggled with domestic form, suffering a 1-0 defeat to Venezia. Roma has not won at the Maradona since 2018, despite both teams winning their recent Champions League matches.
AS Roma: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Third-placed AS Roma, unbeaten in Serie A with the league's best defence, visit a Napoli side 10th after a 0-1 league defeat at Venezia. Both teams won in the Champions League in midweek and both have long injury lists, with Napoli expected to rest De Bruyne and Anguissa. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small lean to Roma.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Napoli win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- AS Roma win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Napoli and 1.4 from AS Roma. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 36% | 28% | 36% | 53% |
| Goals model | 26% | 29% | 45% | 43% |
| AI analysts | 27% | 29% | 44% | 47% |
| Our forecast | 35% | 28% | 37% | 54% |
Verdict: The market already reflects Roma's domestic strength, and factors like Napoli's midweek 4-3 win and Roma's long wait for a win at this ground pull in opposite directions, so our numbers barely move from the bookmakers'. Only a modest one-point lean to the away side is applied.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% | 28% | 37% | Stats preview | #724 | |
| 2 | 35% | 28% | 37% | Full analysis | #948 | |
| 3 | 35% | 28% | 37% | Updated news and prices | #1133 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Napoli: last 6
WLLWDW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Bodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Venezia | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Villarreal UEFA Champions League | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Frosinone | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWLL
AS Roma: last 6
WWLDDW · 13 scored, 6 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | 3–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Como | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | at Torino | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 away: DWDW
Season stats
| Napoli | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Goals scored per game | 2.29 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.43 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.50 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 71% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Napoli won 2, AS Roma 1, 3 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Napoli | 2–2 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 30 Nov 2025 | AS Roma | 0–1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2 Feb 2025 | AS Roma | 1–1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Napoli | 1–0 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Napoli | 2–2 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 23 Dec 2023 | AS Roma | 2–0 | Napoli | Serie A |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1A. Meret
Defenders
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 16Rafa Marín
- 5B. Badiashile
- 17M. Olivera
Midfielders
- 11K. De Bruyne
- 99A. Zambo Anguissa
- 8S. McTominay
Forwards
- 21M. Politano
- 19R. Højlund
- 70N. Lang
Substitutes (10)
- 31S. Beukema
- 14N. Contini
- 6B. Gilmour
- 23Giovane
- 68S. Lobotka
- 20L. Lucca
- 35Luca Marianucci
- 32V. Milinković-Savić
- 37L. Spinazzola
- 26A. Vergara
Goalkeeper
- 95P. Gollini
Defenders
- 23G. Mancini
- 5E. Ndicka
- 22Hermoso
Midfielders
- 2D. Rensch
- 15M. de Roon
- 4B. Cristante
- 61N. Pisilli
- 43Wesley
Forwards
- 18M. Soulé
- 14D. Malen
Substitutes (11)
- 32D. Vásquez
- 20N. Molina
- 77E. Lulli
- 3K. Koulierakis
- 87D. Ghilardi
- 63Alessandro Di Nunzio
- 70G. De Marzi
- 9S. Castro
- 78Mandjou Camara
- 26L. Balerdi
- 86Rodrigo Mora
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutAlisson SantosMuscle
- OutA. BuongiornoKnee
- OutDavid NeresThigh
Show 1 more
- OutC. FavasuliThigh
- OutM. BahKnee
- OutP. DybalaCalf
- OutM. KoneMuscle
Show 2 more
- OutL. PellegriniThigh
- OutM. SvilarToe
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Roma are 3rd with 17 points from 7 league games and unbeaten this Serie A season, including W2 D1 L0 away.[2][3]
- Napoli sit 10th with 10 points from 7 games and lost 0-1 at Venezia in their last league match.[1][3]
- Roma have the best defensive record in Serie A.[2][3]
- Napoli are expected to leave Kevin De Bruyne and Frank Anguissa on the bench to manage workloads after midweek.[3]
Sources
- ysscores.com – SSC Napoli aim to regain balance against AS Roma in a… - YSscores (2026-10-24)
- thefootballfaithful.com – AS Roma XI vs Napoli – Predicted lineup and team news - The Football Faithful (2026-10-24)
- thefootballfaithful.com – Napoli vs AS Roma – Match preview and team news - The Football Faithful (2026-10-24)
- sports.yahoo.com – Probable Formation: Napoli vs Roma - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Rest days
- Napoli 3AS Roma 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Napoli 4 · AS Roma 4
- Referee
- Andrea Colombo
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 2.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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