Udinese vs AC Milan prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour forecast
Who wins?
AC Milan to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 49%
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving away only one point to 54%, because Milan's unbeaten league form and Udinese's five straight defeats point the same way but the Bournemouth loss limits confidence. The Dressing Room's larger shift of 3 points was not followed, since the verified table shows just one point separating the sides in a single league draw context and the extra tilt rests on soft morale factors.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think AC Milan's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFully-fit Milan attack against a shaky, possibly Solet-less Udinese defence.
Udinese may miss centre-back Oumar Solet (reported out, not confirmed by the club), doubtful after a physical issue this week, thinning the back line that has already conceded 16 goals in 7 games.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureFlying Milan visit a slumping, pressured Udinese side.
Udinese have lost five straight league games and sit 16th with 4 points from 7, and coach Runjaic admits he is under pressure. Milan are unbeaten in the league, 5th, fresh off a 3-2 win over Atalanta.
Udinese: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMilan's league form and Udinese's leaky defence point to an away win with goals.
Udinese have lost six straight and conceded 16 goals in seven league games. Milan are unbeaten in the league with 14 goals scored, and won the last H2H here 3-0 in Sep 2025.
AC Milan: slightly underrated
More goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
AC Milan visit Udine unbeaten in Serie A and sit 5th with 15 points, while Udinese have lost five straight league games and sit 16th. Udinese's defence is the main concern, and Oumar Solet is doubtful. Milan lost their last Europa League match at Bournemouth, a possible factor in rotation or morale.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Udinese win or draw
- 46%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- AC Milan win or draw
- 80%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Udinese and 1.7 from AC Milan. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 0–2 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 21% | 26% | 53% | 49% |
| Goals model | 23% | 23% | 54% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 20% | 24% | 56% | 63% |
| Our forecast | 20% | 26% | 54% | 50% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market: Udinese's slump and defensive record point to Milan, but Bournemouth fatigue and one-off H2H swings temper the edge.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% | 21% | 54% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1202 | |
| 2 | 21% | 26% | 53% | Prices moved | #1348 | |
| 3 | 20% | 26% | 54% | Full analysis | #1424 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Udinese: last 6
LLLLLW · 7 scored, 14 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Lecce | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sep | at Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Venezia Coppa Italia | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLLWD
AC Milan: last 6
LWWDWL · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Bournemouth UEFA Europa League | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Atalanta | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Sassuolo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Benfica UEFA Europa League | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWDDD
Season stats
| Udinese | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 2.29 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | +11 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | +13 | 18 | DWDDW |
| 4 | Como | 8 | +7 | 17 | WWDLW |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 8 | Cagliari | 8 | -3 | 13 | LLDWW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | -4 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | -7 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Udinese | 7 | -7 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLWL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | -11 | 3 | LWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Udinese won 2, AC Milan 4, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | AC Milan | 0–3 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Udinese | 0–3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 11 Apr 2025 | Udinese | 0–4 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 19 Oct 2024 | AC Milan | 1–0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Udinese | 2–3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 4 Nov 2023 | AC Milan | 0–1 | Udinese | Serie A |
Team news: lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Maduka Okoye
Defenders
- Matteo Palma
- Nicolo Bertola
- Enzo Ebosse
Midfielders
- Mergim Vojvoda
- Jesper Karlstrom
- Jakub Piotrowski
- Hassane Kamara
Forwards
- Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
- Giorgi Chakvetadze
- Keinan Davis
Goalkeeper
- Mike Maignan
Defenders
- Fikayo Tomori
- Koni De Winter
- Strahinja Pavlovic
- Pervis Estupinan
Midfielders
- Alphadjo Cisse
- Yunus Musah
- Luka Modric
Forwards
- Christian Pulisic
- Goncalo Ramos?
Others
- Filippo Terracciano
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree or the player is doubtful (hover for why). Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutD. AlabaCalf
- OutV. BayoThigh
- OutI. GueyeAnkle
Show 1 more
- DoubtN. ZanioloThigh
- OutS. ChukwuezeHip
- OutM. GabbiaThigh
- OutM. GilaAnkle
Show 4 more
- OutD. MoreiraThigh
- OutA. RabiotCalf
- OutA. SaelemaekersAnkle
- DoubtG. RamosCalf
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Udinese sit 16th in Serie A with 4 points from 7 games, having drawn once and lost three times at home.[1][2]
- Udinese have lost their last three league matches, including 0-3 at home to Lecce on 18 October, and five straight Serie A defeats overall.[1][2]
- Udinese have scored 9 and conceded 16 goals in their 7 league games, with defence the stated problem area.[2]
- Milan won 3-2 against Atalanta in their most recent league match, but lost 0-3 at Bournemouth in the Europa League on 22 October.[1][2]
Still unclear
- Whether Oumar Solet recovers in time to feature for Udinese
- How Milan's heavy Europa League loss to Bournemouth affects rotation/morale
Sources
- worldsoccertalk.com – Udinese vs AC Milan: Projected lineups for the 2026-27 Serie A match - World Soccer Talk (2026-10-25)
- bbc.co.uk – Udinese vs AC Milan: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-25)
Match context
- Travel for AC Milan
- 321 km
- Rest days
- Udinese 7AC Milan 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Udinese 2 · AC Milan 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Matteo Marcenaro
- Coaches
- Ruben Amorim
- AC Milan, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
