Torino vs Monza prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Torino to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 51% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point off the market on the 1X2, while The Sceptic's roughly seven-point lift to over 2.5 was not followed because Torino's low scoring this season and the low data quality argue for caution. The Coach's one-point trim to the home side was noted but our final home figure stays near the market rather than at its adjusted level.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Torino at home edge a Monza side led by in-form Varela.
Torino start Simeone and Adams up front with Vlasic and Cacciamani behind; Monza pair Dany Mota with top scorer Varela (6 league goals), who is drawing Napoli and Arsenal interest. Key duel: Torino's midfield trio Mandragora-Fitz-Jim-Cacciamani against Ondoa and Akinsanmiro.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureTorino's stronger form and home edge edge out a leaky Monza defence.
Torino sit 10th on 10 points after wins over Parma, Udinese and Fiorentina; Monza are 14th on 7 points with 15 goals conceded. Monza did beat Torino 1-0 in the Coppa Italia this season.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongGoals look underpriced: over 2.5 is the angle, not the 1X2.
Market has Torino 45.6%, draw 28.3%, Monza 26.1%. The goals line looks light: model sees 3.42 expected goals and 66% over 2.5, and the league averages 2.96 per game.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Torino host Monza in Serie A on 23 October with both sides coming off wins. Torino sit 10th with 10 points, Monza 14th with 7. Monza won the only meeting this season, 1-0 in the Coppa Italia, but Torino's league form is stronger.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Torino win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Monza win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Torino and 1.1 from Monza. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 46% | 28% | 26% | 51% |
| Goals model | 51% | 23% | 26% | 66% |
| AI analysts | 49% | 26% | 26% | 60% |
| Our forecast | 45% | 28% | 26% | 50% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because the sources offer little beyond table and form, and both teams' absences are already reflected in our data. We do not follow the larger goals-line shift, as Torino's low scoring this season offsets Monza's open matches.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 28% | 27% | Stats preview | #602 | |
| 2 | 45% | 28% | 26% | Full analysis | #696 | |
| 3 | 45% | 28% | 26% | Official lineups | #768 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Torino: last 6
WWDLWL · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Parma | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Bologna | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Sep | vs Monza Coppa Italia | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLLW
Monza: last 6
WLWLDW · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Cagliari | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Lazio | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Sep | at Torino Coppa Italia | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLDWL
Season stats
| Torino | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Goals scored per game | 1.86 |
| 1.29 | Goals conceded per game | 2.14 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 86% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Como | 8 | +7 | 17 | WWDLW |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 8 | Cagliari | 8 | -3 | 13 | LLDWW |
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | +3 | 11 | DLWDW |
| 10 | Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 | LDWLD |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | -3 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | -2 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | -4 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | -7 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Udinese | 7 | -7 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Torino won 2, Monza 1, 3 draws; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | Torino | 0–1 | Monza | Coppa Italia |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Monza | 0–2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Torino | 1–1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Torino | 1–0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Monza | 1–1 | Torino | Serie A |
| 7 May 2023 | Torino | 1–1 | Monza | Serie A |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 20Lucas Perri
Defenders
- 23Saúl Coco
- 44A. Ismajli
- 15P. Comuzzo
Midfielders
- 45R. Belghali
- 8R. Mandragora
- 28K. Fitz-Jim
- 77A. Cacciamani
- 10N. Vlašić
- 19C. Adams
Forward
- 18G. Simeone
Substitutes (13)
- 3C. Biraghi
- 5E. Cömert
- 22C. Casadei
- 7Z. Aboukhlal
- 66G. Gineitis
- 17S. Kulenović
- 26D. Mascardi
- 11G. Oristanio
- 2N. Patterson
- 9P. Pellegri
- 76L. Siviero
- 91D. Zapata
- 21Daniel Bragança
Goalkeeper
- 1N. Törnqvist
Defenders
- 2S. Goglichidze
- 3L. Lucchesi
- 44A. Carboni
Midfielders
- 19S. Birindelli
- 8M. Ondoa
- 14E. Akinsanmiro
- 7Ricardo Mangas
- 47Dany Mota
- 46Jay Robinson
Forward
- 9Gustavo Varela
Substitutes (15)
- 26P. Ciurria
- 21L. Colombo
- 10P. Cutrone
- 90M. Folorunsho
- 11O. Forson
- 60E. Kouadio
- 80M. Mout
- 16C. Ngonge
- 43A. Strajnar
- 20D. Thiam
- 27I. Touré
- 22E. Zeballos
- 24A. Bakoune
- 6V. Antov
- 28A. Colpani
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutN. FortiniThigh
- OutE. IlkhanMuscle
- OutF. IsraelShoulder
Show 1 more
- OutR. RodriguezThigh
- OutY. MayeMuscle
- OutM. PessinaKnee
- OutJ. ZiolkowskiFoot
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Torino are 10th with 10 points from 7 games, while Monza are 14th with 7 points from 7.[1]
- Torino have won their last two league games, 3-0 at Parma and 2-1 against Udinese.[1]
- Monza beat Cagliari 4-0 in their most recent league match after losing 3-1 at Lazio.[1]
- Monza have scored 13 league goals, more than Torino's 10, but have conceded 15.[1]
- Monza have not won a league away game this season, with three defeats and one draw.[1]
- Torino have lost two of their three home league games this season.[1]
- Monza beat Torino 1-0 in the Coppa Italia on 1 September 2026.[1]
Sources
- bbc.com – Torino vs Monza: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Rest days
- Torino 4Monza 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Torino 2 · Monza 2
- Referee
- Andrea Zanotti
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 2.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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