Parma vs Udinese prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Udinese 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a tight, nervous contest between two winless-recent sides on 4 points, with Udinese narrowly favoured but their 38% looking slightly rich given six straight losses. Goal expectations are low (1.1 v 1.2) despite leaky defences, so the over 2.5 at 42% sits about right, perhaps a touch high.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Parma's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersParma concede 1.88 per game and Udinese 2.25, yet neither has kept a clean sheet all season. Parma score just 0.75 at home and fail to score in 50% of matches, while Udinese manage only 0.40 away. Both teams score in just 48% of the modelled picture, so 1-0 and 0-1 shapes loom large.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo sides on 4 points from 8 games - this is a must-not-lose for both benches.
Parma sit 19th and Udinese 17th, both on 4 points with identical W1 D1 L6 records. Parma have lost five of their last six; Udinese have lost six straight. With only 2 days' rest for Udinese and 3 for Parma, nerves may trump ambition in a tense, low-quality contest.
Parma: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongUdinese at 38% looks generous given six straight defeats and away scoring built on one game.
Udinese's 2.33 goals per game away rests heavily on the 3-5 at Inter; their other away sample is thin. Parma have won the last meeting 0-1 in 2026 and lead recent home H2H moments, yet are priced at just 32%. The 42% over 2.5 looks fair against 62% season rates but both attacks are misfiring.
Parma: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Udinese are slight favourites at 38%, with Parma on 32% and the draw on 30%. Parma are 19th and Udinese 17th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Parma won one and Udinese none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Parma win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Udinese win or draw
- 68%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Parma and 1.2 from Udinese. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 30% | 38% | Stats preview | #1689 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Parma: last 6
LLLWLD · 5 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Torino | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Inter | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Como | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWDLL
Udinese: last 6
LLLLLL · 5 scored, 15 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Lecce | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sep | at Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 away: LLW
Season stats
| Parma | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.88 | Goals conceded per game | 2.25 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 0.40 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 2.33 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | -4 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | -7 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLWL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | -11 | 3 | LWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Parma won 1, Udinese 4, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Udinese | 0–1 | Parma | Serie A |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Parma | 0–2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Udinese | 1–0 | Parma | Serie A |
| 16 Sep 2024 | Parma | 2–3 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 21 Feb 2021 | Parma | 2–2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 18 Oct 2020 | Udinese | 3–2 | Parma | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutP. AlmqvistCalf
- OutN. ElphegeIllness
- OutH. Nicolussi CavigliaThigh
Show 1 more
- OutL. ValentiCoach's decision
- OutD. AlabaCalf
- OutV. BayoThigh
- OutI. GueyeAnkle
Show 2 more
- DoubtO. SoletMuscle
- DoubtA. ZanoliMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Udinese
- 267 km
- Rest days
- Parma 3Udinese 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Parma 2 · Udinese 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Davide Massa
- Coaches
- A. Gilardino
- Parma, since Oct 2026
- K. Runjaic
- Udinese, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
