Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour forecast
Who wins?
Lazio to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60%
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our away figure moves just one point above the bookmakers, mainly because The Sceptic's small shift for Lazio's perfect away record and favourable referee history was partly followed. The Coach's larger tilt was only partially adopted, while The Dressing Room's push to 56% was not, since our final number stayed closer to the market.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Lazio's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength league leaders face a shaky Sassuolo back line - edge to Lazio.
Lazio are without only Pinamonti (a doubt) (tracheitis), with Lazzari favoured to return at right-back; Mandas, Noslin and Isaksen form a strong XI. Sassuolo have no players out but remain undecided between Muric and Turati in goal.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureLazio's winning run meets a Sassuolo side on one point in four games.
Sassuolo have taken just one point from their last four, lost back-to-back games, and slid from ninth to fifteenth.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongLazio's away record and referee edge look slightly underpriced at Mapei.
Referee Zufferli has four wins with Lazio and none with Sassuolo.
Lazio: slightly underrated
Low AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Lazio sit second with a perfect away record and four straight league wins, while Sassuolo have one point from their last four and home losses yet to come this season. Absences are modest on both sides, with Lazzari in line to return for Lazio. Our numbers stay close to the market with a slight tilt to Lazio.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sassuolo win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Lazio win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sassuolo and 1.8 from Lazio. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 0–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 28% | 26% | 46% | 60% |
| Goals model | 21% | 24% | 55% | 58% |
| AI analysts | 22% | 24% | 54% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 27% | 26% | 47% | 60% |
Verdict: Our final numbers stay close to the market with a one-point tilt to Lazio, reflecting their perfect away record and the favourable referee history without overreacting to Sassuolo's home resilience.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sassuolo: last 6
LLDLWD · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Como | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Frosinone | 2–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Monza | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Bologna | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWW
Lazio: last 6
WWWWDW · 14 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Juventus | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Monza | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | at Udinese | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 away: WWWW
Season stats
| Sassuolo | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.62 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 88% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sassuolo won 1, Lazio 4, 1 draw; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2026 | Lazio | 2–1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Sassuolo | 1–0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 26 May 2024 | Lazio | 1–1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Sassuolo | 0–2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 3 May 2023 | Lazio | 2–0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 15 Jan 2023 | Sassuolo | 0–2 | Lazio | Serie A |
Team news: lineups Expected
Midfielders
- Muric; Cinquegrano, Caleta-Car, Odenthal, Doig; Adzic, Matic, Thorstvedt; Berardi, Esposito, Laurienté
- Turati, Cinquegrano, Caleta-Car, Odenthal, Doig, Bakola, Lipani, Thorstvedt, Berardi, Esposito, Laurienté
Forwards
- Mandas; Lazzari, Sutalo, Leite, Nuno Tavares; Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
- Mandas, Floriani Mussolini, Sutalo, Diogo Leite, Nuno Tavares, Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor, Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree or the player is doubtful (hover for why). Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutD. BolocaMuscle
- OutJ. IdzesMuscle
- OutI. KoneBroken Leg
Show 2 more
- OutF. LeysenKnee
- OutY. PazKnee
- OutA. FurlanettoKnee
- OutA. GudmundssonShoulder
- OutA. MarusicMuscle
Show 2 more
- OutN. RovellaCalf
- DoubtA. PinamontiIllness
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Sassuolo are 14th with 8 points from 8 games and have won twice, drawn once and lost none at home.[3]
- Sassuolo have taken one point from their last four league games and have conceded 16 goals in the season.[2][3]
- Lazio could make it five consecutive league wins and their eighth win in nine Serie A matches.[2]
- The match is a Round nine fixture at Mapei Stadium on 27 October 2026.[1][2]
Still unclear
- Whether Muric or Turati starts in goal for Sassuolo
- Whether Lazzari or Floriani Mussolini starts on the right flank for Lazio
- Whether Pinamonti (a doubt) returns to the starting lineup despite reports of tracheitis
Sources
- onefootball.com – Serie A tonight, Lazio at Sassuolo and Torino v Como, probable line-ups and TV - OneFootball (2026-10-27)
- sport.quotidiano.net – Sassuolo-Lazio: The Biancocelesti will be at Mapei to continue their impressive run, with lineups and TV schedules. - Quotidiano Sportivo (2026-10-27)
- sport.quotidiano.net – Sassuolo takes on league leaders Lazio - Quotidiano Sportivo (2026-10-27)
Match context
- Travel for Lazio
- 347 km
- Rest days
- Sassuolo 3Lazio 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sassuolo 2 · Lazio 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Luca Zufferli
- Coaches
- A. Aquilani
- Sassuolo, since Oct 2026
- G. Gattuso
- Lazio, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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