Bologna vs Monza prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bologna to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings agree the numbers look right: Bologna favourites despite a flat home record, Monza dangerous going forward but leaking. The Sceptic's slight lean to over 2.5 nudges the verdict marginally goals-friendly, but nothing here argues for more than a small move from the published numbers.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBologna concede just 1.25 per game and kept two clean sheets in their last three league games, yet score only 1.00 per game both home and away. Two defences both keeping clean sheets only 12% of the time suggests goals at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides sit mid-lower table with losing records, and a win would be a real buffer for either
Bologna, 13th on 8 points from 8 (W2 D2 L4), host Monza, 15th on 7 (W2 D1 L5), so the gap is one point and this is a six-pointer for momentum. Bologna's home form of L D D L makes a comfortable win unlikely. Rest is equal at 7 days each, so no freshness edge.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair; over 2.5 possibly a shade low given Monza's 88% over rate
Bologna 55% is near where form puts them: they have won two of the last six and beaten sides around them.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Bologna are favourites at 55%, with Monza on 21% and the draw on 24%. Bologna are 13th and Monza 15th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Bologna won two and Monza two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bologna win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Monza win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Bologna and 1.0 from Monza. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 24% | 21% | Stats preview | #1864 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bologna: last 6
WLWDLD · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Cagliari | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Inter | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Lecce | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: LDDL
Monza: last 6
LWLWLD · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Torino | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Cagliari | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Lazio | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Parma | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLLDW
Season stats
| Bologna | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.88 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 88% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Match context
- Travel for Monza
- 202 km
- Rest days
- Bologna 7Monza 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bologna 2 · Monza 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Raffaele Palladino
- Bologna, since Oct 2026
- I. Juric
- Monza, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
