Atalanta vs Parma prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Atalanta to win: 67%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Atalanta are clear favourites at 67%, with Parma on 13% and the draw on 20%. Atalanta are 11th and Parma 19th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Atalanta won one and Parma one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atalanta win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Parma win or draw
- 33%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Atalanta and 0.8 from Parma. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 22% | 23% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2039 | |
| 2 | 67% | 20% | 13% | Prices moved | #2228 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atalanta: last 6
DLLWWL · 12 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Frosinone | 4–4 | D |
| 22 Oct | at Ajax UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at AC Milan | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Venezia | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWWLW
Parma: last 6
LLLWLD · 5 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Torino | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Inter | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Como | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: LLLL
Season stats
| Atalanta | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | Goals scored per game | 0.62 |
| 1.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutI. HienMuscle Bruise
No absences reported.
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Parma
- 112 km
- Rest days
- Atalanta 8Parma 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atalanta 2 · Parma 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Sarri
- Atalanta, since Oct 2026
- A. Gilardino
- Parma, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
