Lecce vs Genoa prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Lecce 35%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Lecce are slight favourites at 35%, with Genoa on 35% and the draw on 30%. Lecce are 12th and Genoa 16th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Lecce won two and Genoa two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lecce win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Genoa win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 65%
- 3+ goals
- 39%
- 4+ goals
- 19%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Lecce and 1.1 from Genoa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (12%), 0–0 (11%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 25% | 31% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1925 | |
| 2 | 35% | 30% | 35% | Prices moved | #2200 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lecce: last 6
LWLLWL · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Udinese | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Bologna | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sep | at Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: LLWL
Genoa: last 6
WLWLWD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Venezia | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Parma | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Sudtirol Coppa Italia | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Lecce | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Goals scored per game | 0.75 |
| 1.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.62 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No absences reported.
- OutL. VenturinoJumpers Knee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Genoa
- 880 km
- Rest days
- Lecce 7Genoa 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lecce 1 · Genoa 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- E. Di Francesco
- Lecce, since Oct 2026
- D. De Rossi
- Genoa, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
