Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Sassuolo 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Sassuolo are slight favourites at 38%, with Fiorentina on 36% and the draw on 26%. Sassuolo are 14th and Fiorentina 18th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Sassuolo won one and Fiorentina one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sassuolo win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Fiorentina win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Sassuolo and 1.5 from Fiorentina. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 21% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2038 | |
| 2 | 38% | 26% | 36% | Prices moved | #2227 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sassuolo: last 6
LLDLWD · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Como | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Frosinone | 2–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Monza | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Bologna | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWW
Fiorentina: last 6
LLLDWW · 11 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Inter | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Como | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Genoa | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Pisa Coppa Italia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Venezia | 4–2 | W |
Last 4 away: LLWL
Season stats
| Sassuolo | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.38 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| 88% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | -1 | 10 | DLWLL |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | -5 | 9 | LWLLW |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | -2 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | -4 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | -7 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | -10 | 4 | LLLWL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | -11 | 3 | LWLLL |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutI. KonéBroken Leg
- OutE. PieragnoloJumpers Knee
- OutFali CandéJumpers Knee
Show 2 more
- OutD. BolocaMuscle Bruise
- OutY. PazJumpers Knee
- OutR. SottilBack
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Fiorentina
- 113 km
- Rest days
- Sassuolo 9Fiorentina 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sassuolo 1 · Fiorentina 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- A. Aquilani
- Sassuolo, since Oct 2026
- P. Vanoli
- Fiorentina, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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