Lazio vs Cagliari prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Lazio to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Lazio are clear favourites at 63%, with Cagliari on 15% and the draw on 22%. Lazio are 2nd and Cagliari 9th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Lazio won four and Cagliari two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lazio win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Cagliari win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Lazio and 0.8 from Cagliari. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 25% | 18% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1922 | |
| 2 | 63% | 22% | 15% | Prices moved | #2198 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lazio: last 6
WWWWDW · 14 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Juventus | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Monza | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | at Udinese | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWDWL
Cagliari: last 6
LLDWWW · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Bologna | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | at Monza | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Udinese | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sep | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 away: LWWW
Season stats
| Lazio | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.75 |
| 0.62 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie A table
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutPatricSprained Ankle
- OutA. FurlanettoJumpers Knee
- OutRiyad IdrissiJumpers Knee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Cagliari
- 411 km
- Rest days
- Lazio 7Cagliari 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lazio 2 · Cagliari 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- G. Gattuso
- Lazio, since Oct 2026
- F. Pisacane
- Cagliari, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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