Kataka vs Police prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Police to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
A narrow, possibly low-scoring away edge is the consensus.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, but neither attack convinces.
Expected goals of 1.1 against 1.4 suggest a tight, low-quality contest.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePressure sits squarely on winless Kataka at home.
Kataka's home form reads L L D L with 3 scored and 12 conceded.
Police: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks fair, but the goals line may be generous.
Their 57% clean-sheet rate and 14% both-teams-score rate argue under 2.5, closer to the 29% season mark than the published 45%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Police are slight favourites at 42%, with Kataka on 31% and the draw on 27%. Kataka are 17th and Police 12th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Kataka won none and Police one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kataka win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Police win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Kataka and 1.4 from Police. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 27% | 42% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1764 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kataka: last 6
LLLDLL · 4 scored, 17 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Maroons | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Vipers | 0–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Kitara | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs SC Villa | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | at KCCA | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Sep | vs BUL | 1–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: LLDL
Police: last 6
DLLWDL · 3 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Vipers | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs SC Villa | 1–6 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Entebbe UPPC | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Lugazi | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | vs UPDF | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Sep | at Blacks Power | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: DLWL
Season stats
| Kataka | Police | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Goals scored per game | 0.57 |
| 2.43 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 14% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 57% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Kataka 10Police 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kataka 1 · Police 1
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
