NEC vs Ntugasaze prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
NEC to win: 80%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: NEC's home record, table position and fresher legs against an away side with one win and eight conceded in three on the road. The 70% home rating and 2.1 expected goals look well supported. The over 2.5 line at 54% is the one soft spot, with both-teams-score at just 46%.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNEC's home scoring meets a leaky away defence - goals look likely.
Ntugasaze's away games have seen them score once and concede eight in their last three.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird against 16th, and NEC's fresher schedule shows in the table.
NEC sit 3rd with 14 points from 7 games (W4 D2 L1, 12-4); Ntugasaze are 16th with 3 points from 6 (W1 D0 L5, 3-13). NEC have lost once in six and won their last home pair; Ntugasaze have five defeats in six. NEC's 6-day rest versus Ntugasaze's 14-day gap adds another edge.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look fair, though the over may be a touch generous.
The 70% home rating matches NEC's form: W4 D2 L1, unbeaten at home in three (D W W, 7 scored, 2 conceded). Ntugasaze's L L L away run (1 scored, 8 conceded) supports the 11%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
NEC are clear favourites at 80%, with Ntugasaze on 7% and the draw on 13%. NEC are 3rd and Ntugasaze 16th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, NEC won two and Ntugasaze one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- NEC win or draw
- 93%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 87%
- Ntugasaze win or draw
- 20%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 2.5 goals from NEC and 0.6 from Ntugasaze. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 3–0 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (8%), 4–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% | 19% | 11% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1566 | |
| 2 | 77% | 15% | 8% | Prices moved | #1652 | |
| 3 | 80% | 13% | 7% | Prices moved | #2246 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
NEC: last 6
LWDWDW · 10 scored, 4 conceded
| 21 Oct | at BUL | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Kigezi HomeBoyz | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Express | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs URA | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Mbarara City | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Lugazi | 3–1 | W |
Last 3 at home: DWW
Ntugasaze: last 6
LWLLLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs KCCA | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Mbarara City | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Vipers | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | at BUL | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Maroons | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Blacks Power | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| NEC | Ntugasaze | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 0.50 |
| 0.57 | Goals conceded per game | 2.17 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 57% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 7 and 6 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | +11 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | +13 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- NEC 6Ntugasaze 14
- Matches in the last 14 days: NEC 2 · Ntugasaze 0
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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