Kitara vs BUL prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
BUL to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings converge on BUL: the model's 46% away lean is backed by their unbeaten league start, W D W away form and a full week's rest against a Kitara side playing two days later. On goals, the coach and sceptic both see the 43% over 2.5 line as fair, with Kitara's 75% both-teams-score rate offsetting their low 25% over rate.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBUL's away scoring rate points to a lively away win with goals at both ends.
Both teams scored in 75% of Kitara's league games, so a 1-2-type scoreline fits the underlying rates.
BUL: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnbeaten leaders with a full week's rest face an unbeaten host on two days' recovery.
BUL sit 1st on 19 points from 7 games, W6 D1 L0, and arrive with 7 days' rest. Kitara are 9th on 8 points from 4 games, also unbeaten, but played just 2 days ago. BUL's away form reads W D W with 6 scored and 1 conceded.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe model's BUL lean looks right, but the low goals line deserves a second look.
Yet BUL's games clear it 57% of the time, so 43% for over 2.5 is broadly fair; the 46% away lean is well supported by form.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
BUL are favourites at 46%, with Kitara on 27% and the draw on 27%. Kitara are 9th and BUL 1st in the Uganda Premier League. In their last four league games, Kitara won two and BUL three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kitara win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- BUL win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Kitara and 1.4 from BUL. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (9%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 27% | 46% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1690 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kitara: last 6
LLWWDD · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Al Ahly CAF Confederation Cup | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Al Ahly CAF Confederation Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Kataka | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Kigezi HomeBoyz | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Express | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | at SC Villa | 1–1 | D |
Last 2 at home: LW
BUL: last 6
WWDWWW · 14 scored, 4 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs NEC | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at UPDF | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Lugazi | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Blacks Power | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Ntugasaze | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | at Kataka | 4–1 | W |
Last 3 away: WDW
Season stats
| Kitara | BUL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Goals scored per game | 2.14 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 0.57 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 4 and 7 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | +11 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | +13 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| … | |||||
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Kitara won 1, BUL 3, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | BUL | 1–1 | Kitara | Premier League |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Kitara | 1–0 | BUL | Premier League |
| 6 Mar 2025 | BUL | 1–0 | Kitara | Premier League |
| 25 Oct 2024 | Kitara | 1–3 | BUL | Premier League |
| 29 Mar 2024 | Kitara | 0–0 | BUL | Premier League |
| 26 Nov 2023 | BUL | 2–1 | Kitara | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Kitara 2BUL 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kitara 2 · BUL 2
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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