Mbarara City vs KCCA prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
A draw is the most likely result: 37%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 81%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three cards agree on a low-scoring profile: Mbarara's 83% failure-to-score rate, KCCA's 67% clean-sheet rate and the league's 2.16 goals per match all support the published 19% over 2.5 as roughly right or a shade high.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo low-scoring sides point to a tight, under-2.5 type of match.
Neither side scores enough for goals; competition matches average 2.16.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMbarara's poor run leaves them under pressure against a fresher KCCA.
KCCA sit 8th on 10 points from 6 games; Mbarara are 14th on 5. KCCA arrive with 18 days' rest versus Mbarara's 9, and Mbarara's last six include four defeats, so the visitors' extra freshness matters.
KCCA: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers may be shading KCCA slightly too low.
KCCA look slightly underrated.
KCCA: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
No clear favourite: a draw is the single most likely result at 37%. Mbarara City are 14th and KCCA 8th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Mbarara City won one and KCCA three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mbarara City win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 63%
- KCCA win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 44%
- 3+ goals
- 19%
- 4+ goals
- 7%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 28%
- No
- 72%
We expect about 0.7 goals from Mbarara City and 0.8 from KCCA. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–0 (22%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–1 (17%), 1–0 (16%), 1–1 (13%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 37% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1874 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mbarara City: last 6
LWLDDL · 2 scored, 5 conceded
| 22 Oct | at SC Villa | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Blacks Power | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | at Ntugasaze | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs NEC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Police | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 at home: WDD
KCCA: last 6
WWWDLL · 4 scored, 4 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Ntugasaze | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at URA | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Kataka | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Kigezi HomeBoyz | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Sep | at Express | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs NEC | 0–2 | L |
Last 4 away: WWDL
Season stats
| Mbarara City | KCCA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.33 | Goals scored per game | 0.67 |
| 0.83 | Goals conceded per game | 0.67 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 17% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 0% |
| 17% | Both teams scored | 0% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 67% |
| 83% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Mbarara City 9KCCA 18
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mbarara City 1 · KCCA 0
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
