Blacks Power vs NEC prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
NEC to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 52%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings lean NEC: the model's 53% away chance is backed by their 3rd-place record and miserly defence, while Blacks Power's three defeats and 11 goals conceded temper home hopes. On goals, the sceptic's note on NEC's 43% over rate tempers the 52% published figure slightly.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNEC's defensive record gives them the edge in a game the numbers make tight but away-leaning.
Expect a lower-scoring, away-tilted contest.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird-placed NEC arrive with more points and better form than fifth-placed Blacks Power.
NEC sit 3rd on 14 points from 7 games; Blacks Power are 5th on 12. Blacks Power have lost three already with no draws, while NEC have lost once. Both had one game in 14 days, NEC with an extra three days' rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 52% over line looks generous given NEC's low-scoring away profile.
Blacks Power games run 71% over 2.5, but NEC's run just 43%, and NEC concede 0.57 away per game. With the match total at 2.16 goals per game league-wide, the 52% over number leans on the hosts' leaky defence. Slightly under looks fairer.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
NEC are favourites at 53%, with Blacks Power on 23% and the draw on 24%. Blacks Power are 5th and NEC 3rd in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Blacks Power won two and NEC two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Blacks Power win or draw
- 47%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- NEC win or draw
- 76%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Blacks Power and 1.7 from NEC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% | 24% | 53% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1915 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Blacks Power: last 6
WLLLWW · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs URA | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Mbarara City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Vipers | 0–4 | L |
| 15 Sep | at BUL | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Maroons | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Police | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WLWW
NEC: last 6
LWDWDW · 10 scored, 4 conceded
| 21 Oct | at BUL | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Kigezi HomeBoyz | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Express | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs URA | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Mbarara City | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Lugazi | 3–1 | W |
Last 4 away: LWDW
Season stats
| Blacks Power | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.71 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 0.57 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.33 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | +11 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | +13 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Blacks Power 7NEC 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Blacks Power 1 · NEC 1
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
