Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Maroons to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMaroons' home scoring meets a Kigezi side that rarely finds the net
Maroons score 2.25 per game at home while Kigezi average 0.00 away and have failed to score in 83% of matches. Maroons' games go over 2.5 goals 71% of the time, but Kigezi's sit at 33%, so the total line looks about right.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table gap is stark and Maroons should play with confidence
Maroons sit 7th with 10 points from 7 games; Kigezi are 18th with just 1 point from 6. Maroons have won three of their last six and are unbeaten in two, while Kigezi have lost five straight. Both had 11 and 9 days' rest respectively, so freshness is even.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look broadly fair, maybe slightly kind to Kigezi
Maroons' 59% home win probability looks reasonable; I'd shade the draw down slightly.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Maroons are favourites at 59%, with Kigezi HomeBoyz on 17% and the draw on 24%. Maroons are 7th and Kigezi HomeBoyz 18th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Maroons won two and Kigezi HomeBoyz none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Maroons win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Kigezi HomeBoyz win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Maroons and 0.8 from Kigezi HomeBoyz. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 24% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1907 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Maroons: last 6
WDWLLW · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Kataka | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Vipers | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | vs Lugazi | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | at UPDF | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Blacks Power | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | at Ntugasaze | 3–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWLL
Kigezi HomeBoyz: last 6
LLLLDL · 1 scored, 9 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs NEC | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Kitara | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | at SC Villa | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs KCCA | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Lugazi | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Maroons | Kigezi HomeBoyz | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | Goals scored per game | 0.17 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 17% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 83% |
League matches only, 7 and 6 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Maroons 11Kigezi HomeBoyz 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Maroons 1 · Kigezi HomeBoyz 1
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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