Mbarara City vs Vipers prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vipers to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 70%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings converge: Vipers' superior attack (2.17 per game), miserly defence (0.33 conceded) and five wins in six head-to-head meetings against a Mbarara side scoring 0.33 per game make the away win the clear central outcome.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVipers' attack and Mbarara's blunt scoring point to a low-scoring away win
Both teams score in only 17% of either side's games, so a 2.5 line at 30% over looks fair.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePoints gap and fixture load favour Vipers despite the shorter rest
Vipers sit 6th on 11 points from 6 games; Mbarara are 14th on 5 points and have lost 3 of their last 6. Vipers have played twice in 14 days to Mbarara's once, but their away form is two wins with 9 scored and 0 conceded. The table gap should tell.
Vipers: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look about right, maybe slightly light on Vipers
The model's 53% for Vipers sits comfortably against head-to-head: five wins in the last six meetings, including 1-2 and 2-0 wins over Mbarara in 2026. I'd nudge Vipers up a touch.
Vipers: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Vipers are favourites at 53%, with Mbarara City on 18% and the draw on 29%. Mbarara City are 14th and Vipers 6th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Mbarara City won one and Vipers three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mbarara City win or draw
- 47%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Vipers win or draw
- 83%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 57%
- 3+ goals
- 30%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 33%
- No
- 67%
We expect about 0.6 goals from Mbarara City and 1.3 from Vipers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–0 (15%), 0–2 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17% | 29% | 53% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1739 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mbarara City: last 6
LWLDDL · 2 scored, 5 conceded
| 22 Oct | at SC Villa | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Blacks Power | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | at Ntugasaze | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs NEC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Police | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 at home: WDD
Vipers: last 6
DWDWWL · 13 scored, 2 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Police | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Kataka | 5–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Maroons | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | at Blacks Power | 4–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Ntugasaze | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–1 | L |
Last 2 away: WW
Season stats
| Mbarara City | Vipers | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.33 | Goals scored per game | 2.17 |
| 0.83 | Goals conceded per game | 0.33 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 4.50 |
| 17% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 17% | Both teams scored | 17% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 67% |
| 83% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Mbarara City won 0, Vipers 5, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | Mbarara City | 1–2 | Vipers | Premier League |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Vipers | 2–0 | Mbarara City | Premier League |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Vipers | 1–0 | Mbarara City | Premier League |
| 29 Oct 2024 | Mbarara City | 1–3 | Vipers | Premier League |
| 18 May 2024 | Vipers | 4–1 | Mbarara City | Premier League |
| 3 Oct 2023 | Mbarara City | 0–0 | Vipers | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Mbarara City 6Vipers 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mbarara City 1 · Vipers 2
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
