UPDF vs URA prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (URA 36%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 62% · bookies 62%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three analyses suggest a tight contest where UPDF's home advantage and better league position are key factors. While URA has historical success in this fixture, UPDF's inconsistent form and low home scoring rate present challenges for both sides.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersUPDF struggles to score at home, while URA is capable of high-scoring away games.
UPDF scores 0.33 goals per game at home. URA is capable of scoring 1.00 goal per game away. URA concedes 1.67 goals per game overall.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUPDF's better league standing and rest period give them a slight edge in this fixture.
UPDF is 10th in the table with 8 points from 6 games. URA is 15th with 4 points from 6 games. UPDF has 8 days rest compared to URA's 3 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears balanced, reflecting URA's historical advantage against a struggling home side.
URA has won 3 of the last 6 head-to-head matches, but there have been 3 draws. The published probabilities align closely with the historical record.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
URA are slight favourites at 36%, with UPDF on 34% and the draw on 30%. UPDF are 10th and URA 15th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, UPDF won two and URA none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- UPDF win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- URA win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 65%
- 3+ goals
- 38%
- 4+ goals
- 18%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.1 goals from UPDF and 1.1 from URA. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (12%), 0–0 (11%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 30% | 29% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1568 | |
| 2 | 34% | 30% | 36% | Prices moved | #1653 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
UPDF: last 6
LWWDLD · 4 scored, 5 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs BUL | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Express | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Maroons | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | at Police | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sep | at Entebbe UPPC | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Kataka | 0–0 | D |
Last 3 at home: LWD
URA: last 6
LDLLLW · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Blacks Power | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs KCCA | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | at NEC | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs SC Villa | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Maroons | 2–1 | W |
Last 3 away: LLW
Season stats
| UPDF | URA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Goals scored per game | 0.83 |
| 0.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: UPDF won 0, URA 3, 3 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | UPDF | 0–0 | URA | Premier League |
| 29 Oct 2025 | URA | 3–2 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 7 Mar 2025 | URA | 2–1 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 24 Oct 2024 | UPDF | 0–0 | URA | Premier League |
| 6 Feb 2024 | URA | 1–0 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 17 Sep 2023 | UPDF | 0–0 | URA | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- UPDF 8URA 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: UPDF 2 · URA 2
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
