Blacks Power vs URA prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Blacks Power 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 60% · ✗ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land within a few points of the published numbers: a near-even match leaning slightly to Blacks Power, helped by home advantage and extra rest. The Coach and Sceptic both flag goal doubts, with URA failing to score often and low-scoring head-to-heads, so the over 2.5 line at 40% is treated as fair to slightly generous.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks and leaky defences point to a tight, low-scoring contest.
URA do their damage away (1.50 per game) but are blank at home.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table hosts with rest advantage face a struggling visitor needing points.
Blacks Power sit 8th with 9 points from 6 games; URA are 15th with 4 points from 5. The hosts have lost three straight league games, while URA have one win in five. Blacks Power have had 13 days since their last match, URA just 8, so the fresher legs are at home.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head history suggests the goals line may be a touch generous.
The last two meetings were draws with just 1.0 goals per game, yet the model gives 40% to over 2.5. Blacks Power score only 0.67 per game at home and URA have kept clean sheets in just 20% of matches, so 38% home and 34% away look broadly fair, but I shade the total down.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Blacks Power are slight favourites at 38%, with URA on 34% and the draw on 28%. Blacks Power are 8th and URA 15th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Blacks Power won two and URA one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Blacks Power win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- URA win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 67%
- 3+ goals
- 40%
- 4+ goals
- 20%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Blacks Power and 1.1 from URA. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 28% | 34% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #677 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Blacks Power: last 6
LLLWWW · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Mbarara City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Vipers | 0–4 | L |
| 15 Sep | at BUL | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Maroons | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Police | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Ntugasaze | 1–0 | W |
Last 3 at home: LWW
URA: last 5
DLLLW · 3 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs KCCA | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | at NEC | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs SC Villa | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Maroons | 2–1 | W |
Last 2 away: LW
Season stats
| Blacks Power | URA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.40 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 60% |
League matches only, 6 and 5 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | +13 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Blacks Power won 0, URA 0, 2 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2023 | Blacks Power | 1–1 | URA | Premier League |
| 2 Dec 2022 | URA | 0–0 | Blacks Power | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Blacks Power 13URA 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Blacks Power 1 · URA 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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