Vipers vs Police prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vipers to win: 88%, about 9 in 10
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54% · ✗ 0 goals
The Verdict
The sceptic's only pushback is on goals, and even that lands near the published 56% for over 2.5. A home win with a lean to fewer than three goals is the coherent summary of the data.
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVipers average 2.60 goals per game and concede just 0.40, with clean sheets in 60% of matches.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureVipers' strong start and rest advantage make them clear favourites at home.
Vipers sit 5th on 10 points from 5 games, unbeaten in their last four league outings, and have had 8 days to prepare. Nine days off helps the visitors, but the gap in form and points is stark.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 70% home number looks fair, but 56% for over 2.5 goals feels a touch high.
The 2026 meeting here was a 0-0. I'd shade the total down to around 50% while keeping the home win near the published 70%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vipers are clear favourites at 88%, with Police on 3% and the draw on 9%. Vipers are 5th and Police 12th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Vipers won three and Police one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vipers win or draw
- 97%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 91%
- Police win or draw
- 12%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 21%
- No
- 79%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Vipers and 0.3 from Police. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 3–0 (17%), 1–0 (15%), 4–0 (11%), 0–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% | 18% | 11% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #630 | |
| 2 | 84% | 12% | 4% | Prices moved | #650 | |
| 3 | 88% | 9% | 3% | Prices moved | #662 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vipers: last 5
WDWWL · 13 scored, 2 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Kataka | 5–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Maroons | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | at Blacks Power | 4–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Ntugasaze | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 at home: DWL
Police: last 6
LLWDLW · 4 scored, 10 conceded
| 14 Oct | vs SC Villa | 1–6 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Entebbe UPPC | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Lugazi | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | vs UPDF | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Sep | at Blacks Power | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Mbarara City | 1–0 | W |
Last 3 away: LWL
Season stats
| Vipers | Police | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | Goals scored per game | 0.67 |
| 0.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 4.50 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 20% | Both teams scored | 17% |
| 60% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 5 and 6 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Vipers won 5, Police 0, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | Police | 0–0 | Vipers | Premier League |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Vipers | 4–1 | Police | Premier League |
| 6 Mar 2025 | Police | 0–1 | Vipers | Premier League |
| 25 Oct 2024 | Vipers | 2–1 | Police | Premier League |
| 21 May 2022 | Vipers | 5–0 | Police | Premier League |
| 17 Oct 2021 | Police | 0–2 | Vipers | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Vipers 8Police 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vipers 2 · Police 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
