Kitara vs Ntugasaze prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Kitara to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55%
Not graded: the match did not take place.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a Kitara advantage, driven by their home form and league position. While the market suggests a high probability for Kitara, the data highlights Ntugasaze's severe away defensive issues, making goals likely.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersKitara's strong home attack is well-positioned to exploit Ntugasaze's defensive weaknesses.
Kitara scores 1.00 per game at home and has a 75% rate of both teams scoring. Ntugasaze concedes 2.17 goals per game and scores only 0.33 away.
Ntugasaze: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureKitara's superior league standing and recent rest provide a significant advantage over Ntugasaze.
Kitara sits 9th with 8 points from 4 games and has had 6 days rest. Ntugasaze is 16th with 3 points from 6 games and has had 10 days rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating the defensive struggles of Ntugasaze on the road.
Ntugasaze has lost 3 of their last 3 away games, conceding 8 goals. Kitara has failed to score 0% of the time in the season.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Kitara are favourites at 59%, with Ntugasaze on 17% and the draw on 24%. Kitara are 9th and Ntugasaze 16th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last four league games, Kitara won two and Ntugasaze one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kitara win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Ntugasaze win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Kitara and 0.8 from Ntugasaze. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 24% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #658 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kitara: last 5
LWWDD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Al Ahly CAF Confederation Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Kataka | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Kigezi HomeBoyz | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Express | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | at SC Villa | 1–1 | D |
Last 2 at home: LW
Ntugasaze: last 6
LWLLLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs KCCA | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Mbarara City | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Vipers | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | at BUL | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Maroons | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Blacks Power | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Kitara | Ntugasaze | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Goals scored per game | 0.50 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 2.17 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 4 and 6 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Kitara 6Ntugasaze 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kitara 2 · Ntugasaze 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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