Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Police to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 68%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The model's 42-31-28 with 32% for over 2.5 fits the attacking numbers on both sides, and the sceptic finds little to argue with. A narrow, low-scoring home edge is the consensus picture.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks make this a tight, low-scoring contest
Both teams score just 14-17% of the time, and neither side averages a goal per game. Expect few clear chances and a grind.
Kigezi HomeBoyz: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureKigezi have 1 point from 6 games, 5 defeats running.
Police: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look broadly fair, if anything slightly generous on goals
Under 2.5 leans right given 29% and 33% over-2.5 rates and 0.9 away expected goals.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Police are slight favourites at 42%, with Kigezi HomeBoyz on 27% and the draw on 31%. Police are 12th and Kigezi HomeBoyz 18th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Police won one and Kigezi HomeBoyz none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Police win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Kigezi HomeBoyz win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 59%
- 3+ goals
- 32%
- 4+ goals
- 14%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 39%
- No
- 61%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Police and 0.9 from Kigezi HomeBoyz. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 31% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1567 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Police: last 6
DLLWDL · 3 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Vipers | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs SC Villa | 1–6 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Entebbe UPPC | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Lugazi | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | vs UPDF | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Sep | at Blacks Power | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 at home: LDW
Kigezi HomeBoyz: last 6
LLLLDL · 1 scored, 9 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs NEC | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Kitara | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | at SC Villa | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs KCCA | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Lugazi | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Police | Kigezi HomeBoyz | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Goals scored per game | 0.17 |
| 1.43 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 14% | Both teams scored | 17% |
| 57% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 57% | Failed to score | 83% |
League matches only, 7 and 6 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Police 3Kigezi HomeBoyz 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Police 2 · Kigezi HomeBoyz 2
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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