KCCA vs Lugazi prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
KCCA to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 73%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published 40-33-27, with KCCA favoured on rest, form and defensive records. The one shared doubt is goals: with KCCA yet to have a match over 2.5 this season and Lugazi often failing to score, the 27% over line looks if anything slightly high. Expect a tight, low-scoring home win.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks point to a low-scoring KCCA edge
Both teams score in just 34% of the model's picture, so a narrow home win with Lugazi shut out fits the numbers.
Lugazi: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureRest and home advantage tilt a tight mid-table scrap KCCA's way
KCCA sit 8th on 10 points from 6 games and arrive with three straight league wins and 15 days' rest. Lugazi are 11th on 8 points from 7, winless in four, and have conceded six in their last three away games. The extra week of recovery should tell late in a tight game.
KCCA: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair, maybe slightly generous on goals
The model's 40-33-27 split matches the evidence: KCCA won the last meeting 3-0 and lead the head-to-head 2-0-2, but Lugazi have drawn two of their last three. The 27% over 2.5 looks a touch high given KCCA's 0% over rate and Lugazi's 43%, so I shade goals down slightly.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
KCCA are slight favourites at 40%, with Lugazi on 27% and the draw on 33%. KCCA are 8th and Lugazi 11th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, KCCA won three and Lugazi one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- KCCA win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 67%
- Lugazi win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 54%
- 3+ goals
- 27%
- 4+ goals
- 11%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 34%
- No
- 66%
We expect about 1.0 goals from KCCA and 0.8 from Lugazi. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (17%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 33% | 27% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1692 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
KCCA: last 6
WWWDLL · 4 scored, 4 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Ntugasaze | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at URA | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Kataka | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Kigezi HomeBoyz | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Sep | at Express | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs NEC | 0–2 | L |
Last 2 at home: WL
Lugazi: last 6
DDLLWL · 2 scored, 8 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Express | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs BUL | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Maroons | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Police | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | at Entebbe UPPC | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | at NEC | 1–3 | L |
Last 3 away: LWL
Season stats
| KCCA | Lugazi | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Goals scored per game | 0.57 |
| 0.67 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 0% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 0% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 57% |
League matches only, 6 and 7 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: KCCA won 2, Lugazi 0, 2 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Lugazi | 0–3 | KCCA | Premier League |
| 16 Oct 2025 | KCCA | 0–0 | Lugazi | Premier League |
| 14 May 2025 | KCCA | 5–0 | Lugazi | Premier League |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Lugazi | 1–1 | KCCA | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- KCCA 15Lugazi 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: KCCA 0 · Lugazi 1
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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