Lugazi vs SC Villa prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Villa to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: SC Villa's unbeaten league record and far superior scoring rates make them clear favourites, while Lugazi's shortage of goals keeps the total modest. The sceptic's only doubt is Villa's two recent defeats, which trims the away probability slightly, but the published numbers broadly hold up.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVilla's attack meets a Lugazi side that rarely scores - goals likely one-sided.
SC Villa score 2.29 per game and keep clean sheets in 57% of matches, while Lugazi fail to score in 57% and manage just 0.50 per game at home. Both-teams-score sits at 43% overall.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnbeaten Villa, second in the table, should be too strong for 11th-placed Lugazi.
SC Villa sit 2nd with 17 points from 7 games, unbeaten (W5 D2 L0, goals 16-3). Lugazi are 11th on 8 points (W2 D2 L3, goals 4-9). Lugazi have had 10 days' rest to Villa's 6, with Villa playing twice in 14 days - a small knock, but not enough to overturn the gulf.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongVilla's away win number looks a touch high after two heavy recent defeats.
SC Villa have lost two of their last three (1-3 v Lijabatho, 0-3 at Lifofane), though their away record reads L W D W with 8 scored and 5 conceded. Lugazi have scored just twice in their last six (0-0, 0-0, 0-3, 0-2, 1-0, 1-3), which supports a low home goal expectation.
Lugazi: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
SC Villa are clear favourites at 61%, with Lugazi on 16% and the draw on 23%. Lugazi are 11th and SC Villa 2nd in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Lugazi won one and SC Villa four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lugazi win or draw
- 39%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- SC Villa win or draw
- 84%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 43%
- No
- 57%
We expect about 0.7 goals from Lugazi and 1.7 from SC Villa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–2 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | 23% | 61% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1916 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lugazi: last 6
DDLLWL · 2 scored, 8 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Express | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs BUL | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Maroons | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Police | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | at Entebbe UPPC | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | at NEC | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 at home: DDLW
SC Villa: last 6
LWLWDW · 13 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Lijabatho Premier League | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | vs Mbarara City | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Lifofane Premier League | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Police | 6–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | at Kataka | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3–0 | W |
Last 4 away: LWDW
Season stats
| Lugazi | SC Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Goals scored per game | 2.29 |
| 1.29 | Goals conceded per game | 0.43 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 2.67 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 57% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | +11 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | +13 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| … | |||||
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Lugazi 10SC Villa 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lugazi 1 · SC Villa 2
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
